Analyst Foresees SEC Rejection of Bitcoin ETF, Warns of Market Impact

Markus Thielen, an analyst at Matrixport, stands at odds with the prevailing market sentiment by anticipating the SEC to dismiss all Bitcoin spot ETF proposals in January.
Despite multiple updates and engagements between applicants and the SEC, Thielen’s observations indicate these submissions lack the necessary elements to meet the SEC’s stringent criteria for approval.
Thielen’s forecast stems from a nuanced understanding of political dynamics intertwined with the SEC’s focus on ensuring robust compliance standards within the crypto landscape.
This view is echoed by SEC Chair Gensler, who emphasized the prevalence of fraudulent activities and non-compliance issues within the crypto sphere during a recent interview on CNBC.
The race for a bitcoin spot ETF approval involves prominent firms like BlackRock, Fidelity, and others seeking the SEC’s green light.
Thielen’s cautionary prediction of a potential 20% plummet in bitcoin’s value accompanies the current trading price of $44,562. Such a rejection could trigger a substantial sell-off, revisiting the $36,000 to $38,000 range.
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Despite short-term uncertainties, Thielen maintains an optimistic outlook for the long haul. He envisions a bullish trajectory for Bitcoin in 2024, projecting it to exceed the $42,000 mark by year-end.
Thielen’s analysis draws parallels from historical trends observed in U.S. election cycles and the cyclical patterns of Bitcoin mining, offering a ray of hope for investors amidst the regulatory ambiguity.