Arthur Hayes Exits HYPE and NEAR as Macro Risks Reshape Crypto Outlook
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and one of the cryptocurrency market's most closely followed macro investors, has exited his entire positions in Hyperliquid (HYPE) and NEAR Protocol (NEAR), marking a notable shift in sentiment after months of publicly advocating both assets.
Summary:
- Arthur Hayes sold his entire HYPE and NEAR positions.
- He cites energy markets, AI IPOs, and politics as emerging risks.
- Hayes still expects market highs to occur before September.
Hayes disclosed the move on June 4, stating that a forthcoming essay titled Reality Test will provide a detailed explanation for his decision. While he stopped short of calling for a broad market collapse, his comments suggest growing caution toward risk assets as investors navigate rising geopolitical tensions, shifting capital flows, and an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic backdrop.
I just dumped my entire $HYPE and $NEAR position, I will explain why in my essay "Reality Test" dropping next Tuesday.
TLDR:
– Higher energy prices due to Iran war and inventory restocking
– 3 Mega AI IPOs between now and early Q3
– Prediction that Trump goes anti-AI to win…— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) June 4, 2026
The announcement is particularly significant because it comes after Hayes spent much of 2026 promoting Hyperliquid, NEAR, and Zcash as some of his highest-conviction cryptocurrency investments. His abrupt decision to lock in profits raises questions about whether the market’s strongest-performing narratives are approaching a cyclical peak or simply entering a period of consolidation.
From Bull to Seller: Why Hayes Changed His View
Hayes’ bullish stance toward Hyperliquid and NEAR has been well documented throughout the year.
For Hyperliquid, his investment thesis centered on the protocol’s rapidly growing derivatives ecosystem, strong fee generation, aggressive token buyback mechanisms, and increasing market share within decentralized trading. At various points, Hayes suggested HYPE could eventually challenge some of the industry’s largest Layer-1 networks in terms of valuation and influence.
His thesis on NEAR was equally ambitious. Hayes repeatedly highlighted the project’s long-term potential in artificial intelligence infrastructure, particularly through NEAR Intents, a framework designed to simplify cross-chain transactions and enable autonomous AI-driven financial activity.
However, the macro backdrop appears to have altered his risk-reward assessment.
According to Hayes, rising energy prices linked to Middle East tensions and global inventory restocking could pressure liquidity conditions. He also pointed to several major AI-related initial public offerings expected between now and early third quarter, potentially attracting capital away from speculative crypto assets and into traditional equity markets.
Major IPOs act as a significant “liquidity vacuum” by drawing speculative capital away from high-beta crypto assets and into traditional equity markets. Because institutional and retail investors operate with finite capital, they often liquidate their most volatile, speculative positions – such as niche altcoins – to free up the liquidity needed to capture the perceived growth potential of high-profile, high-demand AI stock offerings. This shift is further amplified by “attention arbitrage,” where the market’s focus and sentiment move from crypto-native narratives to the mainstream excitement of new public listings, effectively starving the speculative crypto sector of the trading volume and momentum required to sustain its previous growth.
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Additionally, Hayes suggested that political narratives surrounding artificial intelligence could become increasingly contentious ahead of U.S. midterm elections, introducing another source of uncertainty for one of the market’s most popular investment themes.
Hyperliquid Technical Structure Turns Bearish
The timing of Hayes’ exit coincides with a sharp deterioration in Hyperliquid’s short-term technical structure.
HYPE traded near $65.30 at the time of analysis, falling significantly from recent highs above $75. The 30-minute TradingView chart shows price breaking decisively below its 20, 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, a technical configuration that typically signals broad weakness across multiple timeframes.
Momentum indicators have also deteriorated sharply. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to approximately 26, placing the asset in oversold territory and reflecting the intensity of recent selling pressure.
While oversold readings can sometimes precede short-term rebounds, traders are likely watching whether HYPE can reclaim the $70-$72 range, where multiple moving averages now cluster as resistance.
Key Technical Levels
Support
- $65.00 (current local support)
- $62.00-$63.00 (next major demand zone)
Resistance
- $70.40 (20-period moving average)
- $71.70-$72.20 (50/100/200 MA cluster)
- $75.00 (recent swing high)
From a market structure perspective, the loss of all major moving averages suggests bears currently maintain control unless buyers can quickly reclaim higher levels.
NEAR Technical Analysis: Key Support Faces Pressure
NEAR Protocol has also come under significant selling pressure following Arthur Hayes’ decision to exit his position, with the token falling toward the $2.30-$2.40 support zone after failing to hold above the psychologically important $3.00 level.
The 30-minute chart shows a clear deterioration in market structure. NEAR is currently trading around $2.39, well below its major moving averages, with the 20-period SMA at $2.53, the 50-period SMA at $2.75, the 100-period SMA at $2.72, and the 200-period SMA at $2.57. The loss of all major trend indicators highlights the extent of the recent correction and confirms that sellers remain in control across short- and medium-term timeframes.
Momentum indicators also reflect heavy downside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently dropped below 30 before recovering slightly to 31.8, indicating that NEAR briefly entered oversold territory. While oversold conditions can trigger short-term relief rallies, they do not automatically signal a trend reversal, particularly when price remains below key resistance levels.
Key Technical Levels
Support
- $2.30-$2.35 (current demand zone)
- $2.20 (next major support)
- $2.00 (psychological support level)
Resistance
- $2.53 (20-period SMA)
- $2.57 (200-period SMA)
- $2.72-$2.75 (100 and 50-period SMA cluster)
- $3.00 (major psychological resistance)
From a technical perspective, bulls need to reclaim the $2.55-$2.75 range to stabilize momentum and invalidate the current bearish structure. Failure to hold above $2.30 could expose the token to a deeper retracement toward the $2.00 region, where stronger longer-term demand may emerge.
The timing of the decline is particularly notable given that NEAR has been one of the market’s strongest AI-related infrastructure plays. Arthur Hayes previously argued that NEAR Intents could become critical infrastructure for autonomous AI agents moving assets across blockchain networks. However, his decision to fully exit the position suggests that macroeconomic risks and profit-taking considerations currently outweigh the project’s long-term fundamental narrative.
For traders, the coming sessions will be crucial. A recovery above $2.55 would signal improving momentum, while a breakdown below $2.30 would reinforce the broader corrective trend that has emerged across high-beta altcoins.
Macro Signals Point to Profit-Taking, Not Panic
Importantly, Hayes did not frame his decision as a bearish call on crypto as an asset class.
Instead, his comments suggest a classic portfolio management decision: reducing exposure after substantial gains while broader market conditions remain favorable. In his own summary, Hayes indicated he still believes market highs could occur between now and September, implying that he views the current environment as an opportunity to take profits rather than a signal that the bull cycle has ended.
This distinction matters.
Historically, experienced macro investors often begin trimming positions before market sentiment peaks rather than after. Such moves are designed to preserve capital and maintain flexibility if volatility increases.
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For investors, the larger takeaway may not be the sale itself but the reasoning behind it. Hayes appears increasingly focused on cross-market liquidity dynamics, energy prices, and capital competition from traditional financial markets – factors that have historically influenced crypto performance during later stages of market cycles.
What Investors Should Watch Next
The next catalyst will likely be Hayes’ forthcoming Reality Test essay, which could provide deeper insight into his evolving macro outlook and expectations for digital assets through the remainder of 2026.
In the meantime, investors will be closely monitoring:
- Hyperliquid’s ability to hold support above $65.
- Whether NEAR maintains momentum despite Hayes’ exit.
- The impact of upcoming AI-related IPOs on speculative capital flows.
- Energy market developments and broader liquidity conditions.
- Bitcoin’s ability to stabilize above key support levels.
For now, Hayes’ decision appears less like a call for capitulation and more like a warning that the easiest gains may already be behind the market. After months of strong performance in AI-related and high-beta crypto assets, one of the industry’s most influential investors is choosing to realize profits and reassess risk – a move that market participants are unlikely to ignore.
The information presented in this article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coinspress.com does not promote or advocate for any particular investment strategy, asset, or cryptocurrency project. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable – always perform your own research and seek guidance from a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Alexander Zdravkov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Alexander Zdravkov is a market analyst and crypto journalist with interests in economics, broader financial markets and digital assets. His journey into crypto began more than four years ago, driven by a fascination with the rapid evolution of blockchain technology and the transformative potential of decentralized finance. He began analyzing market cycles and identifying emerging trends before they reach the mainstream. He holds a degree in International Relations - a background that helped shape his broader perspective on global economics, geopolitics, and the interconnected nature of modern financial markets. Whether covering the latest developments in the crypto sector or exploring broader macroeconomic themes, Alexander focuses on giving readers context rather than simply repeating headlines. During his career, he has authored more than 10,000 articles covering cryptocurrencies, traditional finance, and global market developments. His work spans everything from Bitcoin and altcoins to macroeconomic trends influencing risk assets worldwide.
