Bitcoin and Ethereum Face Key Tests as BTC Demand Recovers
Bitcoin's underlying demand is improving even as price remains technically weak, creating a divergence that could define its next move.
Summary:
- Bitcoin’s negative apparent-demand readings are forming progressively higher lows, indicating that sell-side pressure is losing intensity.
- BTC remains below its key short-term moving averages, with $78,000-$79,100 forming the main resistance cluster.
- Roughly $3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired on Deribit as traders assessed whether improving demand could translate into stronger price action.
CryptoQuant’s apparent-demand data shows progressively smaller contractions since the May-June downturn, while BTC trades near $77,100, below a cluster of short-term moving averages.
The combination suggests that the forces behind Bitcoin’s earlier weakness are easing before price has confirmed a reversal. The next test is whether improving demand can produce enough buying pressure to reclaim $78,000-$79,100, or whether the recovery stalls before reaching the strength seen during previous expansion phases.
The Important Change Is Happening Below Zero
CryptoQuant’s apparent-demand chart shows a notable shift since Bitcoin’s sharp demand contraction around May and June.
Instead of focusing solely on the latest positive reading, the more revealing signal is the sequence of negative periods that preceded it.
Each contraction has become progressively shallower, creating a series of higher lows in apparent demand.
That suggests the imbalance between newly available supply and the amount absorbed by buyers is becoming less severe.
Earlier this year, CryptoQuant data showed a similar improvement when apparent demand recovered from roughly -91,000 BTC in April to around -11,000 BTC by mid-May. At the time, however, much of Bitcoin’s price recovery was being supported by perpetual futures rather than strong U.S. spot demand.
The latest chart moves that process another step forward. Positive apparent demand has returned, but its magnitude still resembles the smaller rebounds seen during 2024. It has yet to approach the stronger and more persistent expansions that accompanied Bitcoin’s major advances in late 2024 and 2025.
This makes the shape of the next demand wave more important than a single positive reading. Sustained positive demand and progressively higher peaks would indicate that buyers are absorbing supply consistently rather than briefly interrupting a broader contraction.
$78,000-$79,100 Is Where Demand Meets the Chart
Price now provides a straightforward test of whether the onchain improvement matters.
At the time of writing Bitcoin trades around $77,123 on September 11, after bouncing from approximately $76,400.
Rather than treating each moving average as an isolated target, the chart points to a broader $78,000-$79,100 resistance zone. On the downside, $76,400 marks the recent local low, with $75,000 becoming relevant if that support gives way.
The main technical levels are concentrated in a relatively narrow range:
| Level | Price | Technical Role |
|---|---|---|
| 20-period SMA | $78,057 | First resistance |
| 100-period SMA | $78,725 | Secondary resistance |
| 50-period SMA | $79,104 | Upper resistance |
| Local support | $76,400 | Recent four-hour low |
| Deeper support | $75,000 | Psychological support |
Momentum has not yet confirmed a breakout. The four-hour RSI sits near 37, recovering from an earlier move below 30 but remaining well below the neutral 50 threshold.
That leaves BTC inside a clearly defined technical range. Reclaiming the moving-average cluster would strengthen the recovery, while losing $76,400 would put the recent bounce under renewed pressure.
A $3 Billion Options Expiry Tests Positioning
Derivatives added another variable on September 11.
According to information from Cryptobriefing, approximately $2.9 billion to $3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired on Deribit, with Bitcoin accounting for about $2.53 billion of the notional value and Ethereum contributing roughly $406 million to $425 million.
Bitcoin’s put-to-call ratio stood around 0.76, indicating more calls than puts in open interest, while Ethereum’s ratio was closer to parity at approximately 0.89. That pointed to comparatively more defensive positioning among ETH options traders heading into settlement.
READ MORE: Bitcoin Is Off Its Peak. Crypto’s Wealth Machine Didn’t
Max-pain levels were estimated at roughly $75,000 for Bitcoin and $2,150 for Ethereum.
Those levels should not be treated as price forecasts. Max pain identifies the expiry price at which aggregate intrinsic value for option holders would be minimized. Large concentrations of options can affect dealer hedging around settlement, but spot demand and broader market conditions remain more important for the direction that follows.
Deribit’s weekly options settle at 08:00 UTC on Fridays, meaning this particular block of expiring exposure was removed as Bitcoin traded relatively close to the lower end of its current technical range.
The muted reaction around settlement also shifts attention back toward the underlying demand and price structure rather than the expiry itself.
Ethereum Shows Why the Signals Are Not Uniform
Ethereum provides a useful comparison because its short-term chart looks healthier even though options traders entered the expiry more defensively.
Its 20- and 50-period averages sit only slightly higher at approximately $2,473 and $2,478, while the four-hour RSI is around 48, much closer to neutral than Bitcoin’s reading.
That puts Ethereum near an immediate decision area.
A move through approximately $2,478-$2,500 would improve its short-term structure, while the $2,435-$2,440 area provides nearby support.
The contrast with the options market is useful. Ethereum’s higher put-to-call ratio indicated more defensive derivatives positioning than Bitcoin, yet its four-hour momentum was comparatively stronger.
This is why options positioning works better as context than as a standalone directional signal. Price structure, spot demand and derivatives can move at different speeds.
The Next Demand Wave Matters More Than the Last One
Bitcoin’s current setup is unusual because the first improvement is appearing beneath the surface.
The increasingly shallow apparent-demand contractions suggest that the market is absorbing supply more effectively than it did during the sharp deterioration earlier this year. But the positive side of the metric has yet to produce the scale seen during Bitcoin’s stronger expansion phases.
That makes the next demand wave particularly informative.
If positive apparent demand persists and begins forming higher peaks while BTC pushes through $78,000-$79,100, the onchain and technical signals would finally start moving in the same direction.
Failure to build on the recent improvement would leave Bitcoin dependent on the $76,400 support area. A break below it would expose $75,000 and weaken the argument that the latest bounce represents the beginning of a broader recovery.
For now, Bitcoin is no longer showing the same degree of demand deterioration seen earlier in the year. The missing piece is evidence that buyers can turn that stabilization into sustained accumulation and, ultimately, a price breakout.
U.S. CPI Is the Next Key Test
Attention now turns to Friday’s U.S. CPI report, which follows Thursday’s hotter-than-expected producer inflation data. The PPI rose 0.4% month over month and 5.4% year over year in August, increasing the stakes for the consumer inflation reading. A softer CPI print could ease some of those concerns and support Bitcoin and Ethereum, while another upside surprise could renew pressure on crypto prices and test BTC’s improving demand structure.
The information presented in this article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coinspress.com does not promote or advocate for any particular investment strategy, asset, or cryptocurrency project. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable – always perform your own research and seek guidance from a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Alexander Zdravkov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Alexander Zdravkov is a market analyst and crypto journalist with interests in economics, broader financial markets and digital assets. His journey into crypto began more than four years ago, driven by a fascination with the rapid evolution of blockchain technology and the transformative potential of decentralized finance. He began analyzing market cycles and identifying emerging trends before they reach the mainstream. He holds a degree in International Relations - a background that helped shape his broader perspective on global economics, geopolitics, and the interconnected nature of modern financial markets. Whether covering the latest developments in the crypto sector or exploring broader macroeconomic themes, Alexander focuses on giving readers context rather than simply repeating headlines. During his career, he has authored more than 10,000 articles covering cryptocurrencies, traditional finance, and global market developments. His work spans everything from Bitcoin and altcoins to macroeconomic trends influencing risk assets worldwide.
