Bitcoin: Bullish Metrics and New Pricing Model Suggest Positive Future
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin's on-chain metrics show positive signs, despite its stagnant price movement this week.
Increasing Bitcoin Demand
One of the metrics the firm monitors is the miners’ fee revenue momentum, which tracks the increasing demand in the BTC market. Glassnode has noted that the metric indicates a rise in demand for Bitcoin, with the 90-day SMA for fees exceeding its yearly average.
One method to gauge rising demand in the market is the value of fees investors are willing to pay to process their transactions.
Currently, the 90d SMA 🔴 for fees is outpacing its yearly average 🔵, suggesting new demand is entering the market.
— glassnode (@glassnode) April 6, 2023
Moreover, Glassnode has observed that the number of non-zero Bitcoin addresses has reached a record high of about 45.5 million, indicating an improvement in on-chain activity.
The recent surge in price action has propelled the number of Non-Zero Addresses to an ATH of ~45.5M, with only 96 / 5206 data points recording a larger 14d change in absolute terms.
This suggests the degree of on-chain activity is currently improving.
— glassnode (@glassnode) April 7, 2023
Similarly, another analytics firm, Santiment, has reported that Bitcoin traders are currently experiencing more losses than profits, which it views as a positive signal as it indicates that the FOMO crowd is abandoning the rally.
Bullish Bitcoin Prediction
Raphael Zagury, the chief investment officer at Swan Bitcoin, has devised a new pricing model for Bitcoin. Schrödinger’s Coin Model calculates a fair price of $387,823 in a base case by valuing Bitcoin as a store of value that will demonetize other assets.
Full model description, sources and more info here:https://t.co/qwKsjTV8iz
I'm figuring out a way to share the dynamic application below as open source. This way anyone can make their own scenarios and assumptions. Soon…
Bitcoiners run the numbers. ▶️ pic.twitter.com/9VVidSH3PZ
— Alpha Zeta (@alphaazeta) April 5, 2023
The model is based on Michael Saylor’s “Bitcoin as Property” and posits that central bank money printing has eroded the value of money, leading to investors seeking protection through financial instruments like stocks, ETFs, and real estate.
READ MORE: Bitcoin Price: Predictions for 2024-2030
Zagury argues that Bitcoin could become the premium asset by demonetizing these traditional stores of value.
New Bitcoin Pricing Model
The model is based on quantum superposition, where Bitcoin has two possible outcomes, and uses probabilities for how much market share it can capture from each asset class.
The base case assumes that 60% of gold’s market capitalization is due to monetization rather than utility. With a market capitalization of $10 trillion and a 70% probability of gold demonetization, this results in a Bitcoin price of $87,000.
The model is still under development, and the most bullish scenario predicts a Bitcoin price of over $3 million per coin.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at a little over $28,000, up 0.5% in the last 24 hours and down nearly 1.5% in the past week. Nonetheless, BTC remains up by over 68% since the beginning of 2023.