Bitcoin Enters a Reset Phase as Markets Look Toward 2026
Bitcoin’s next major move may be less about crypto itself and more about where the global risk cycle is heading.
One market strategist believes the recent weakness is not random volatility, but an early phase of a broader reset that could stretch into 2026.
In a recent interview, Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist at Verified Investing, argued that Bitcoin is behaving exactly as it tends to during late-stage market cycles – just with a different intensity than in previous years.
A different kind of drawdown
Instead of repeating the brutal collapses that defined earlier Bitcoin bear markets, Soloway expects a more controlled correction this time around. In his view, structural changes in the market – particularly the rise of institutional participation – are likely to limit the scale of the decline.
Rather than a 70%-plus wipeout, he sees a drawdown in the range of 40% to 50% from peak levels as more realistic. Crucially, this type of move would not represent a breakdown of Bitcoin’s long-term trend, but a recalibration consistent with maturing markets.
From a technical standpoint, Soloway believes much of this adjustment may already be underway. The decline from recent highs suggests Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase that favors consolidation over panic selling.
Why old highs matter again
One of the most important elements of Soloway’s outlook is where the market could ultimately stabilize. He points to a familiar principle in technical analysis: former cycle highs often turn into long-term support once a new phase begins.
For Bitcoin, that zone sits around the $69,000 area, extending modestly higher. A retreat into that range would align closely with the type of mid-cycle reset he expects. Rather than signaling weakness, such a move could create the conditions for sustained accumulation by longer-term investors.
That said, Soloway does not rule out deeper downside if broader markets unravel. In the event of a sharp equity selloff or liquidity shock, Bitcoin would likely be pulled lower alongside other risk assets as investors rush to de-risk across the board.
Bitcoin’s role in a shifting market landscape
What makes this cycle different, according to Soloway, is Bitcoin’s evolving role within portfolios. While still treated as a risk asset during periods of stress, it is increasingly viewed by large investors as a form of digital gold rather than pure speculation.
This shift could explain why Bitcoin has lagged equities despite strong stock market performance. In past cycles, crypto often surged alongside risk assets. This time, its underperformance may reflect early caution rather than weakness.
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Soloway sees this divergence as meaningful. Historically, crypto has sometimes acted as a forward indicator for changes in risk appetite. If that pattern holds, Bitcoin’s softness could be hinting at tougher conditions ahead for equities.
Stocks, leverage, and the road to 2026
Soloway’s outlook on Bitcoin cannot be separated from his broader market view. He remains wary of equity markets heading into 2026, citing heavy leverage, stretched valuations, and speculative excess – particularly around artificial intelligence themes.
While he acknowledges AI’s long-term economic impact, he argues that margin pressure and overcrowded positioning could weigh on stocks as the cycle matures. In that environment, even a modest equity correction could reinforce Bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative store of value.
Rather than calling for aggressive buying or selling, Soloway favors patience. Gradual accumulation during periods of weakness, especially near historically important levels, fits his framework for navigating the next phase of the cycle.
Looking ahead
If Bitcoin does revisit prior cycle highs, Soloway sees that not as a failure, but as a reset. A prolonged base near those levels could lay the foundation for the next multi-year advance – once excess leverage is flushed out and risk appetite finds firmer footing.
For now, his message is clear: the next chapter for Bitcoin may be written less by headlines and more by how global markets digest the end of an unusually long and leveraged cycle.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Alex is an experienced finance journalist and a cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiast. With over five years of experience covering the industry, he deeply understands the complex and constantly evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His passionate approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and insightful content. Follow up on his content to be up to date with the most important trends and topics - stay ahead of the curve with CoinsPress.
