Bitcoin ETF Launch Looms: Experts Predict High Probability by 2023-2024
Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas suggest a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) is likely to launch by the year's end and almost certainly by 2024.
They estimate a 75% chance of a spot market BTC ETF debuting by late 2023, increasing to 95% by the end of the following year.
The odds have been boosted by Grayscale’s legal victory against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The recent unanimous court ruling requiring the SEC to reconsider its rejection of Grayscale’s BTC ETF application has significantly influenced these probabilities, as explained by Balchunas.
Balchunas emphasizes, “James Seyffart and I now place the odds at 75% for spot Bitcoin ETFs launching this year (95% by the end of ’24). The court’s decisive ruling exceeds expectations, leaving the SEC limited flexibility.”
He clarifies, “Eric Balchunas and I have raised our odds to 75% for a 2023 spot Bitcoin ETF launch, and we’re confident we’ll see one by the close of 2024.”
Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC, filed in June 2022, alleged discriminatory practices in the regulatory body’s rejection of their BTC ETF proposal.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $27,300, reflecting a 1.5% decline over the past 24 hours.