Bitcoin Pulls Back Below $80,000 as Hot Jobs Report Lifts Rate Pressure
The August U.S. jobs report delivered the kind of upside surprise that can change the macro trade quickly.
Summary:
- August payrolls rose 162,000, crushing expectations.
- June and July were revised higher by 55,000 jobs.
- The report keeps a September Fed hike in play.
- Bitcoin is holding near $80,000 despite the macro shock.
The jobs report pushes September back toward a rate hike
The payroll surprise landed at an awkward moment for markets because Federal Reserve officials had already opened a debate over whether another increase was necessary.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller had argued on Thursday that recent inflation progress could justify holding rates steady in September. His position helped ease pressure in bond markets and supported risk assets before the employment release. Waller has also indicated that the labor market itself is unlikely to determine his September vote, putting greater weight on the remaining inflation data.
Chair Kevin Warsh has left the other side of the decision open. His emphasis has remained on bringing inflation convincingly back toward the Fed’s 2% objective, giving policymakers room to tighten again if price pressures fail to moderate.
Friday’s employment data strengthened that side of the argument.
Payrolls increased by 162,000, while unemployment remained at 4.1% and the previous two months were revised upward by a combined 55,000 jobs. A labor market holding up this well reduces the urgency for the Fed to protect employment and gives policymakers greater freedom to concentrate on inflation.
Markets responded accordingly. Reuters reported that the implied probability of a September rate increase climbed to around 62% following the release. Separate market pricing later put the probability near 65%, compared with roughly 55% before the payroll figures.
Treasuries reflected the same adjustment. The 10-year yield moved toward 4.80% and the two-year yield toward 4.40%, while the dollar strengthened after the release.
For crypto, that transmission is more important than the payroll number itself. Higher expected policy rates lift yields on low-risk assets, make leverage more expensive and can strengthen the dollar, all of which reduce the liquidity advantage that helped Bitcoin rally earlier in the week.
The Selloff Spreads Beyond Bitcoin
The reaction to the stronger U.S. jobs report was visible across the crypto market rather than only in Bitcoin.
BTC fell below the key $80,000 threshold after trading above $81,000 earlier in the session. Ethereum also slipped beneath its own psychological level at $2,500, while Solana remained close to $100. XRP held above $1.40.
Zcash remained the clear outlier. ZEC traded near $989 and was still up more than 15% over 24 hours, preserving much of its recent rally despite the deterioration in the broader macro backdrop.
The performance figures also show why the move should not yet be described as a broad crypto collapse. Despite the post-payroll reversal, Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP were still positive over 24 hours at the time of the snapshot. Solana was only marginally higher on the day, while its 3.51% weekly decline pointed to weaker momentum before the jobs release.
Zcash continued to trade on a different trajectory. Its 15.59% daily gain and 24.02% weekly advance left it well ahead of the large-cap market even after retreating from above $1,000.
The overall crypto market capitalization stood near $2.68 trillion, up 1.09%, while the Fear & Greed Index remained at 75, indicating Greed. Those readings suggest the payroll shock triggered a sharp repricing but had not yet produced a broader shift into risk aversion.
Derivatives activity was considerably more violent. According to data from Coinglass, Approximately $638.25 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, including $307.51 million in longs and $330.74 million in shorts. At the same time, open interest fell 4.22% to $431.09 billion, while derivatives volume surged 52.22% to $1.12 trillion.
The relatively balanced liquidation split reflects the session’s two-way volatility. Short positions were squeezed during Bitcoin’s earlier push above $81,000, before the subsequent reversal below $80,000 caught leveraged longs on the other side of the trade.
Bitcoin’s Next Move Depends on Whether $79,000 Holds
The post-payroll decline has shifted Bitcoin’s short-term structure. After reaching above $82,000 earlier in the move, BTC fell as low as $78,973 before returning to $79,249 at the time of writing.
That puts $78,000-$79,000 in focus as the first meaningful support area. It is also close to where the latest breakout accelerated, giving buyers an opportunity to defend the move rather than surrender it entirely. A break below $78,000 would expose the earlier consolidation around $77,000-$77,500.
Momentum has already cooled considerably. The 4-hour RSI dropped to 51.37 from above 70, returning to neutral territory and falling below its RSI moving average at 55.88. The rapid reset suggests the rally has lost momentum, although it has not yet pushed the indicator into oversold conditions.
READ MORE: Bitcoin Bear Reversal Signal Emerges as $83,000 Supply Wall Looms
On the upside, $80,000 has turned from a milestone into immediate resistance. Reclaiming it would be the first sign that buyers are absorbing the macro-driven selling, with $80,500-$81,000 forming the next obstacle.
The bigger test will come from inflation and the bond market. Strong payrolls have reduced the urgency for Fed easing, but the durability of that repricing will depend on whether inflation gives policymakers another reason to remain restrictive. Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar would keep financial conditions less favorable for Bitcoin.
Until then, the range between $78,000 support and $80,000 resistance offers the clearest gauge of the market’s response. A break on either side would provide more information than the initial volatility following the jobs release.
Inflation now decides whether the repricing sticks
The payroll report strengthened the case for tighter policy, but it did not settle the September meeting.
August CPI is due before the Fed’s September 15-16 meeting, giving policymakers another major inflation reading before they vote.
A firm inflation print would leave the Fed with an uncomfortable combination for risk assets: employment strong enough to withstand tighter policy and inflation still requiring restraint. Under that scenario, the rise in Treasury yields could extend and keep pressure on Bitcoin, Ethereum and other liquidity-sensitive assets.
Softer inflation would produce a different setup. It would strengthen Waller’s argument for waiting and could reverse part of Friday’s jump in hike expectations even without renewed weakness in employment.
That makes the $78,000-$80,000 Bitcoin range particularly useful over the next several sessions. Holding the lower boundary while markets price a greater probability of a September hike would show that underlying demand survived a substantial macro repricing.
Losing it would put the earlier $77,000-$77,500 consolidation back into play.
A move above $80,000, meanwhile, would need to occur against a more difficult rates backdrop than the one that produced the original breakout.
The payroll report has already answered one question: the U.S. labor market is stronger than markets thought. August inflation will determine whether that resilience translates into another Fed hike, which is the part of Friday’s surprise that matters most for Bitcoin from here.
The information presented in this article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coinspress.com does not promote or advocate for any particular investment strategy, asset, or cryptocurrency project. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable – always perform your own research and seek guidance from a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
