Bitcoin Sell Pressure Hits Multi-Year Lows as Holder Conviction Grows
Bitcoin's long-term holders now control a record 79% of the cryptocurrency's circulating supply, according to new research from K33, underscoring a growing supply squeeze even as macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on prices.
Summary:
- Long-term holders now control a record 79% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.
- Reactivation of coins dormant for more than two years has fallen to near-historic lows.
- Technical indicators show consolidation, while liquidation data points to fading downside momentum.
The milestone comes as Bitcoin trades near $63,400, with on-chain activity suggesting veteran investors remain unwilling to sell despite the asset’s prolonged correction from its October 2025 peak near $126,000.
Record Holder Conviction Tightens Available Supply
K33’s latest analysis shows long-term holders have accumulated the largest share of Bitcoin supply ever recorded, with nearly four out of every five coins remaining in the hands of investors who have shown little willingness to sell.
Supporting that trend, only 218,421 BTC aged two years or older has moved on-chain so far this year, marking one of the lowest levels of old-coin reactivation since Bitcoin’s early years. Historically, dormant coin movement tends to increase during major profit-taking cycles, making the current inactivity notable given ongoing market volatility.
The data suggests that much of the speculative supply that fueled previous drawdowns has already been absorbed by higher-conviction holders, reducing the amount of Bitcoin readily available for sale.
Sell Pressure Continues to Fade
The decline in old-coin activity is occurring alongside subdued trading volumes across spot and derivatives markets.
K33 argues that shrinking liquidity and reduced holder distribution are characteristic of late-stage bear market environments, where selling pressure becomes increasingly exhausted before demand returns.
While such conditions do not guarantee an immediate recovery, they create a market structure where relatively modest inflows can have an outsized impact on price.
READ MORE: Bitcoin Options Traders Brace for Potential Drop to $52,000
The current setup stands in sharp contrast to 2024, when large-scale profit-taking from long-term holders generated persistent selling pressure during Bitcoin’s decline from all-time highs.
Technical Structure Remains Neutral
Despite constructive on-chain signals, Bitcoin’s short-term technical picture remains mixed.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $63,400 after briefly recovering from a midweek low around $62,200. The 15-minute chart shows price stabilizing within a narrow consolidation range between approximately $62,800 and $63,800 following last week’s sharp decline.
Momentum indicators remain subdued. The Relative Strength Index sits near 46, below the neutral 50 threshold, while the MACD has crossed into negative territory, indicating weakening short-term momentum and the absence of a clear breakout catalyst.
The inability to reclaim resistance near $64,000 suggests buyers remain cautious, although recent price action also shows sellers struggling to force a sustained move below the $62,000-$62,500 support zone.
Liquidation Data Suggests Positioning Reset
Derivatives markets show evidence that excessive leverage has largely been flushed from the system.
According to CoinGlass data, approximately $127.7 million in crypto positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with short positions accounting for $72.4 million and long positions totaling $55.3 million.
Bitcoin led liquidations with nearly $29 million, followed by Ethereum at roughly $26 million and Solana at more than $9 million.
The liquidation imbalance suggests traders betting against the recent rebound have absorbed a larger share of losses, reducing immediate downside positioning pressure while highlighting continued uncertainty about the market’s next direction.
ETF Demand Remains the Missing Piece
The primary challenge facing the bullish thesis remains demand.
Recent spot Bitcoin ETF flows have stabilized compared with the heavy outflows seen earlier in the month, but institutional buying has yet to return at levels typically associated with sustained bull market advances.
Data from June 15-18 showed mixed activity across Bitcoin ETFs, with inflows concentrated in select funds while overall market demand remained inconsistent. The lack of broad-based institutional accumulation has prevented Bitcoin from breaking decisively above key resistance levels.
Many analysts continue to view ETF flows as the most important variable for determining whether Bitcoin’s supply squeeze ultimately translates into higher prices.
Supply Tightening Meets Macro Uncertainty
The broader macroeconomic backdrop remains a headwind.
Federal Reserve officials continue to signal a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, supporting the U.S. dollar and limiting investor appetite for speculative assets. Those conditions have contributed to Bitcoin remaining roughly 50% below its 2025 record high.
Even so, the combination of record long-term holder ownership, historically low old-coin activity and declining sell pressure is creating one of the tightest supply environments seen in years.
For now, the market remains caught between two competing forces: weakening available supply and still-cautious institutional demand. Whether Bitcoin’s supply shock ultimately overwhelms macroeconomic concerns may determine the next major move for the world’s largest digital asset.
The information presented in this article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coinspress.com does not promote or advocate for any particular investment strategy, asset, or cryptocurrency project. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable – always perform your own research and seek guidance from a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Alexander Zdravkov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Alexander Zdravkov is a market analyst and crypto journalist with interests in economics, broader financial markets and digital assets. His journey into crypto began more than four years ago, driven by a fascination with the rapid evolution of blockchain technology and the transformative potential of decentralized finance. He began analyzing market cycles and identifying emerging trends before they reach the mainstream. He holds a degree in International Relations - a background that helped shape his broader perspective on global economics, geopolitics, and the interconnected nature of modern financial markets. Whether covering the latest developments in the crypto sector or exploring broader macroeconomic themes, Alexander focuses on giving readers context rather than simply repeating headlines. During his career, he has authored more than 10,000 articles covering cryptocurrencies, traditional finance, and global market developments. His work spans everything from Bitcoin and altcoins to macroeconomic trends influencing risk assets worldwide.
