Bitcoin Whale Profits Hit Record as BTC Slips Below Key Averages
Bitcoin's newest large holders are sitting on more unrealized profit than at any point in nearly a decade of available data, just as BTC begins to lose short-term technical support.
Summary:
- STH whale unrealized profit reached a record $9.07 billion on September 4.
- The metric fell to $7.51 billion a day later but remained among its five highest readings.
- All five record-area readings have occurred within the past two weeks.
- BTC is now below three major short-term moving averages, putting whale profitability against weakening price momentum.
Short-term holder (STH) whale unrealized profits reached a record $9.07 billion on September 4, according to CryptoQuant contributor IT Tech, while Bitcoin has since slipped to around $78,400 and below its 20-, 50- and 100-period moving averages on the four-hour chart.
Record Profits Create a Large Pool of Potential Supply
The $9.07 billion figure measures unrealized gains rather than Bitcoin already sold into the market.
CryptoQuant’s metric focuses on large short-term holders, meaning whales that acquired their BTC relatively recently. Short-term holders are generally classified as coins held for no more than 155 days. Unrealized profit measures the difference between the market value of those holdings and their onchain acquisition cost.
The distinction is critical. A record reading does not prove whales are distributing BTC.
It does show how much profit is available to realize if conditions deteriorate.
After reaching $9.07 billion on September 4, STH whale paper profits fell to $7.51 billion on September 5 as Bitcoin retreated. Even that lower figure ranked among the five largest readings in the dataset, with all five appearing during the previous two weeks.
CryptoQuant contributor IT Tech argues that this cohort has historically been quick to lock in gains when momentum weakens. In that context, unusually high profitability creates a potential source of supply rather than an automatic bearish signal.
The next confirmation would come from behavior, particularly whether profitable whales begin moving more BTC toward exchanges or realizing gains onchain.
Bitcoin Is Starting to Test That Profit Cushion
The timing makes the onchain signal more relevant.
Bitcoin was trading around $78,431 on September 8. The latest candle had fallen 0.56%, extending a sequence of lower highs after BTC failed to hold above $80,000.
More importantly, price has moved below several closely watched averages:
- 20-period SMA: $79,545
- 50-period SMA: $79,037
- 100-period SMA: $78,738
- 200-period SMA: $72,314
- RSI (14): 39.88
- RSI average: 49.92
BTC trading beneath the 20-, 50- and 100-period averages puts the immediate structure under pressure. The averages are also stacked above spot price between roughly $78,740 and $79,550, creating a resistance cluster that buyers would need to reclaim.
The RSI has fallen below 40 but remains above the conventional 30 oversold threshold. That leaves room for additional downside without the four-hour chart yet reaching an extreme momentum reading.
$78,000 Becomes the Immediate Line to Watch
The chart and the whale data now point toward the same question from different directions: does a modest pullback remain contained, or does weakness become enough to trigger profit realization?
The first test sits around $78,000 to $78,400, where BTC is currently attempting to stabilize. A recovery above the 100-period SMA at $78,738 would be an initial improvement, but the more meaningful resistance sits around $79,000 to $79,550, where the 50- and 20-period averages converge with the recent trading range.
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Failure to defend $78,000 would leave little visible four-hour structure before the lower levels established during the September 3 breakout begin to matter again.
The 200-period SMA remains much deeper at approximately $72,314, showing that the broader four-hour trend has not yet suffered the same technical damage as the shorter time frames.
High Profitability Is a Risk Signal, Not a Sell Signal
There is an important counterpoint to the bearish interpretation.
Whales can remain highly profitable for extended periods during a strong market, and the decline from $9.07 billion to $7.51 billion does not by itself establish that large holders have started selling aggressively. CryptoQuant’s observation identifies capacity and incentive to take profit, not confirmed distribution.
That makes the combination of price and onchain behavior more useful than either metric alone.
A BTC recovery through the $79,000 to $79,550 resistance cluster would weaken the immediate profit-taking thesis by restoring short-term momentum. Continued losses below $78,000, accompanied by evidence that STH whales are realizing gains or sending coins to exchanges, would provide a much stronger indication that their record paper profits are becoming actual sell-side pressure.
For now, Bitcoin has created an unusual market setup: newer whales have rarely had more profit available to take, while the price is beginning to give them a reason to consider taking it.
The information presented in this article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coinspress.com does not promote or advocate for any particular investment strategy, asset, or cryptocurrency project. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable – always perform your own research and seek guidance from a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Alexander Zdravkov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Alexander Zdravkov is a market analyst and crypto journalist with interests in economics, broader financial markets and digital assets. His journey into crypto began more than four years ago, driven by a fascination with the rapid evolution of blockchain technology and the transformative potential of decentralized finance. He began analyzing market cycles and identifying emerging trends before they reach the mainstream. He holds a degree in International Relations - a background that helped shape his broader perspective on global economics, geopolitics, and the interconnected nature of modern financial markets. Whether covering the latest developments in the crypto sector or exploring broader macroeconomic themes, Alexander focuses on giving readers context rather than simply repeating headlines. During his career, he has authored more than 10,000 articles covering cryptocurrencies, traditional finance, and global market developments. His work spans everything from Bitcoin and altcoins to macroeconomic trends influencing risk assets worldwide.
