Bitwise Reveals Why Bitcoin’s Famous Four-Year Cycle May Be Fading
Bitwise believes Bitcoin is entering a new phase where its long-standing four-year cycle no longer defines price behavior.
In its Crypto Outlook 2026 report, published on December 16, 2025, the asset manager argues that Bitcoin is starting to trade like a mature financial asset rather than a halving-driven anomaly. The firm sees this shift as structural, not temporary.
Steady Institutional Demand Replaces Speculative Surges
At the core of Bitwise’s argument is the rise of institutional capital. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are now pulling in consistent inflows from large investors, creating a persistent demand layer beneath the market. Unlike past cycles, capital is not entering in short, speculative bursts tied to halving narratives. Instead, demand arrives steadily and remains deployed.
This changes how price responds to supply events. With constant inflows absorbing new supply, halvings lose their outsized impact. Bitcoin no longer needs hype-driven rallies to find buyers.
Macro Conditions Now Drive Price Behavior
Bitwise notes that Bitcoin has become increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic forces. Interest rates, inflation expectations, and equity market performance now influence price action more than internal protocol mechanics. In this environment, Bitcoin behaves closer to a risk asset than a self-contained system governed by its issuance schedule.
This macro alignment weakens the predictive power of historical cycles. When global liquidity tightens or expands, Bitcoin reacts alongside other financial markets.
READMORE: Could XRP Challenge Ethereum’s Market Dominance by 2026?
Liquidity And Regulation Accelerate Maturity
Deeper liquidity further reinforces the transition. Today’s Bitcoin market can absorb large trades with far less disruption than in earlier years. That depth dampens the violent post-halving volatility seen in prior cycles.
Regulatory integration adds another layer. As banks and financial institutions gain clearer pathways to interact with Bitcoin, the asset becomes embedded within mainstream financial infrastructure. Bitwise argues that once an asset reaches this stage, rigid cyclical patterns tend to dissolve.
Alexander Zdravkov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Alexander Zdravkov interessiert sich leidenschaftlich für Bedeutungsfragen. Er ist seit mehr als drei Jahren im Kryptobereich tätig und hat ein Auge dafür, aufkommende Trends in der Welt der digitalen Währungen aufzuspüren. Ob er nun tiefgreifende Analysen liefert oder tagesaktuell über alle Themen berichtet, sein tiefes Verständnis und seine Begeisterung für das, was er tut, macht ihn zu einer wertvollen Ergänzung für das CoinsPress-Team.
