China’s Economic Outlook: Challenges and Solutions for Growth

In a recent gathering of the 24-member Politburo in China, the country's top leaders acknowledged the presence of "new challenges and obstacles" in the economy.
This annual meeting in July allows the highest-ranking officials to assess the economic situation before their customary summer recess in August.
The current economic conditions were highlighted, pointing to various issues such as inadequate domestic demand, operational challenges faced by some businesses, high risks, hidden dangers in key sectors, and a complex external environment. To address these concerns, the Politburo reached a consensus to implement precise and effective macroeconomic regulation, reinforce countercyclical measures, and build policy reserves.
The meeting, led by President Xi Jinping, also emphasized the need to boost domestic consumption and make timely adjustments to real estate policies. The economic data in recent months has been disappointing, prompting calls for supportive actions from the authorities.
China’s economy grew at a slower rate of 6.3 percent in the second quarter compared to the anticipated 7.1 percent. This drop was despite the lower base of comparison from the previous year when the country experienced COVID-related lockdowns in major cities. Quarter-on-quarter growth declined to 0.8 percent, down from 2.2 percent in the preceding quarter.
Unemployment among the youth hit a record 21.3 percent in June, and the property sector faced challenges, with prominent developers unable to complete housing projects, leading to protests and mortgage boycotts by homebuyers.
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Though the People’s Bank of China reduced interest rates and the government pledged support for the troubled property sector, there has been limited action from Beijing so far. While specific policy measures were not announced in the recent Politburo meeting, the tone set by the top leaders regarding fiscal and monetary policies remained largely unchanged.
Economists believe that the government may not unleash an extensive stimulus package but is more likely to continue rolling out stimulus measures in a gradual manner. In recent efforts to promote consumption, China has introduced measures to incentivize automobile purchases, and there have been announcements to boost artificial intelligence and electronics consumption.
Overall, China aims to achieve around 5 percent growth this year, which is one of the lowest targets set in decades, with Premier Li Qiang cautioning that it will be a challenging goal to accomplish.