Crypto Expert Predicts Bitcoin Peak in March Followed by Major Correction
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has forecasted that the cryptocurrency market may hit its peak in March, followed by a significant correction.
He ties this outlook to shifts in U.S. monetary policy and liquidity dynamics, which he believes will influence Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Hayes pointed out that Bitcoin’s recovery in 2022 coincided with a peak in the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP). At that time, a surge of liquidity boosted both tech stocks and Bitcoin. He predicts a similar scenario in early 2025, as money market funds are set to withdraw $237 billion from the RRP to purchase short-term government debt. This influx of liquidity could fuel a bullish phase for Bitcoin during the first quarter.
Hayes noted that if Congress delays raising the debt ceiling, the Treasury General Account (TGA) will be drained to fund government operations. This spending could create a short-term boost for Bitcoin by increasing dollar liquidity. However, once the debt ceiling is raised, the Treasury will need to borrow extensively to replenish the TGA, which Hayes argues will have a negative effect on dollar liquidity and, by extension, Bitcoin.
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The former BitMEX CEO highlighted tax deadlines in April as an additional factor that could dampen market momentum. Combined with reduced liquidity from the Treasury’s borrowing, he expects a significant correction in the crypto market after March.
Beyond U.S. monetary policy, Hayes emphasized the importance of monitoring economic strategies in China and Japan. These countries’ monetary decisions could also play a crucial role in shaping the trajectory of Bitcoin and the broader market.
In summary, while Hayes envisions a strong start for Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2025, he warns of a sharp downturn driven by tightening liquidity and external economic pressures later in the year.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Alex is an experienced finance journalist and a cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiast. With over five years of experience covering the industry, he deeply understands the complex and constantly evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His passionate approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and insightful content. Follow up on his content to be up to date with the most important trends and topics - stay ahead of the curve with CoinsPress.
