Crypto Market Retreat Ahead of Fed Decision as Liquidations Top $600M
Bitcoin briefly fell toward $63,000 and Ethereum lost the $1,900 level as broad selling pressure returned to crypto markets ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting.
Summary:
- Investors reduced risk exposure before the Federal Reserve’s July 29 policy decision.
- Long liquidations accounted for the vast majority of leveraged losses across crypto markets.
- Bitcoin remains above long-term support despite weakening momentum.
- Ethereum is testing key moving averages after losing last week’s breakout.
Fed Meeting Becomes the Market’s Primary Focus
Markets broadly expect policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged on July 29, shifting attention to whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals that monetary easing remains possible later this year or maintains a restrictive stance following resilient U.S. economic data.
CME FedWatch data shows markets assigning a 64.2% probability to the Federal Reserve holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, with a 35.8% chance of a quarter-point hike.
Attention has shifted to whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh offers any guidance on the timing of future policy easing after a series of resilient U.S. economic reports
Long Positions Absorb the Selloff
The derivatives market reflected that cautious sentiment.
According to CoinGlass, nearly 137,900 traders were liquidated during the past 24 hours, with total forced liquidations reaching approximately $605 million.
Bullish positioning accounted for the overwhelming majority of losses, with roughly $532 million in long liquidations compared with about $73 million on the short side. The largest individual liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid, where a single position worth approximately $24.6 million was closed.
The imbalance suggests the decline was driven primarily by the unwinding of leveraged bullish bets rather than aggressive bearish positioning.
Bitcoin Holds Above Long-Term Support
At the time of writing Bitcoin trades near $63,550 after briefly falling toward $63,200, remaining above its 200-day moving average around $63,025, which continues to serve as the market’s primary long-term support level.
Shorter-term momentum has weakened considerably. Bitcoin is trading below its 20-day, 50-day and 100-day moving averages, indicating sellers continue to dominate near-term price action. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to 38.4, approaching oversold territory but not yet signaling capitulation.
On-chain data also points to moderation rather than panic selling. Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score has fallen to approximately 0.42, well below its historical average near 1.7, while remaining above zero. Meanwhile, seven-day realized profit and loss returned to roughly $239 million, suggesting investors are still realizing gains instead of exiting positions under widespread stress.
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Prediction markets have also turned more cautious. On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin breaking above $64,000 dropped from 78.5% to 47% within an hour, illustrating how quickly expectations shifted following the latest macro-driven selloff.
Ethereum Tests Key Moving Average Cluster
Ethereum traded around $1,886 after giving back part of last week’s advance, leaving the asset near a cluster of closely aligned moving averages.
The cryptocurrency is currently trading below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, while remaining above the 100-day and 200-day averages, indicating that the longer-term trend remains intact despite weakening short-term momentum.
Ethereum’s RSI has eased to approximately 45, reflecting fading buying pressure without entering oversold territory. Immediate support sits near $1,870, while resistance is concentrated around the $1,900-$1,925 range, where several technical indicators converge.
The coming Fed announcement could determine whether Ethereum stabilizes above those support levels or extends its recent correction alongside broader risk assets.
Altcoins Extend Weekly Losses
Selling pressure also remained widespread across the broader altcoin market, with most large-cap tokens posting steeper declines than the overall crypto market over the past week.
| ASSET | 24H CHANGE | 7D CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
| BNB (BNB) | ▼ -1.77% | ▼ -1.84% |
| XRP (XRP) | ▼ -4.70% | ▼ -6.61% |
| Solana (SOL) | ▼ -4.24% | ▼ -6.57% |
| TRON (TRX) | ▼ -2.08% | ▼ -0.52% |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | ▼ -7.71% | ▼ -12.42% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | ▼ -3.58% | ▼ -3.70% |
| UNUS SED LEO (LEO) | ▲ +0.21% | ▲ +0.30% |
| Zcash (ZEC) | ▼ -6.35% | ▼ -13.74% |
| Monero (XMR) | ▼ -2.49% | ▼ -0.36% |
| Chainlink (LINK) | ▼ -5.73% | ▼ -4.15% |
| Stellar (XLM) | ▼ -5.44% | ▼ -9.28% |
| Cardano (ADA) | ▼ -5.51% | ▼ -10.42% |
| Canton (CC) | ▼ -3.29% | ▼ -4.65% |
| Bitcoin Cash (BCH) | ▼ -2.03% | ▼ -4.52% |
Markets Await Fed Guidance
With the policy decision largely priced in, investors are expected to focus on the Fed’s updated assessment of inflation, labor-market conditions and the path for interest rates through the remainder of the year. For cryptocurrencies, a hawkish message could extend the recent deleveraging across digital assets, while a more dovish outlook may improve risk appetite and support a recovery after this week’s broad-based selloff.
The information presented in this article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coinspress.com does not promote or advocate for any particular investment strategy, asset, or cryptocurrency project. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable – always perform your own research and seek guidance from a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Alexander Zdravkov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Alexander Zdravkov is a market analyst and crypto journalist with interests in economics, broader financial markets and digital assets. His journey into crypto began more than four years ago, driven by a fascination with the rapid evolution of blockchain technology and the transformative potential of decentralized finance. He began analyzing market cycles and identifying emerging trends before they reach the mainstream. He holds a degree in International Relations - a background that helped shape his broader perspective on global economics, geopolitics, and the interconnected nature of modern financial markets. Whether covering the latest developments in the crypto sector or exploring broader macroeconomic themes, Alexander focuses on giving readers context rather than simply repeating headlines. During his career, he has authored more than 10,000 articles covering cryptocurrencies, traditional finance, and global market developments. His work spans everything from Bitcoin and altcoins to macroeconomic trends influencing risk assets worldwide.
