Crypto Stocks Brace for Fed Decision as Earnings Season Begins
Crypto-linked equities are entering one of the busiest periods of the quarter, with investors weighing both monetary policy and corporate earnings before taking larger positions.
Summary:
- Coinbase, Strategy and Circle are trading in narrow ranges ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement.
- Investors are preparing for a second catalyst as all three companies report quarterly earnings over the next two days.
- Market participants expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged, shifting attention to policymakers’ forward guidance.
- Circle remains in focus after Bernstein lowered its price target while maintaining an Outperform rating.
While the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is expected to influence broader market sentiment, upcoming quarterly results from Coinbase, Strategy and Circle will determine whether improving cryptocurrency markets are translating into stronger financial performance.
Two Catalysts Could Drive Crypto Stocks
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its latest policy decision today, while Coinbase, Strategy and Circle are set to report quarterly earnings over the next two days.
According to the latest CME FedWatch data, markets assign a 64.2% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its target rate at 3.50%-3.75%, while a 35.8% probability is priced in for a 25-basis-point increase to 3.75%-4.00%. Rather than the rate decision itself, investors are expected to focus on any changes in policymakers’ outlook for inflation and interest rates.
Quarterly results will then shift attention to company fundamentals, including cryptocurrency trading activity, Bitcoin treasury performance and stablecoin adoption.
Crypto Market Watch: Coinbase, Strategy, and Circle
Why Crypto Stocks Are Facing a Different Test
Although Bitcoin has remained relatively stable ahead of the Fed meeting, crypto-linked equities are being influenced by factors beyond the direction of digital assets.
For listed companies, investors must also assess revenue growth, profitability and management guidance. That means earnings reports could have a greater impact on individual stock performance than short-term moves in Bitcoin or Ethereum.
As a result, Coinbase, Strategy and Circle may react differently even if the broader cryptocurrency market remains largely unchanged following the Fed announcement.
Fed Guidance May Matter More Than the Rate Decision
The policy decision itself is unlikely to surprise markets, with futures pricing indicating broad expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee will leave benchmark interest rates unchanged.
Instead, investors are expected to focus on Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments and any changes to the Fed’s outlook.
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A more hawkish tone could reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer, weighing on higher-risk assets such as technology and crypto-related stocks. Conversely, indications that policymakers are becoming more confident inflation is moderating could improve expectations for future rate cuts and support risk appetite across financial markets.
Earnings Will Shift Attention to Company Fundamentals
Beyond macroeconomic policy, investors are preparing for results that could reshape expectations for the sector.
Upcoming earnings calendar:
- July 30: Coinbase (COIN) – Q2 earnings
- July 30: Strategy (MSTR) – Q2 earnings
- August 5: Circle (CRCL) – Q2 earnings
Coinbase’s earnings are expected to provide a snapshot of retail and institutional trading activity during the second quarter, while Strategy’s report will be closely watched for updates on its expanding Bitcoin treasury strategy and capital structure.
Circle’s results are likely to draw attention to USDC circulation, reserve income and management’s outlook following increased competition in the regulated stablecoin market.
Together, the reports will help investors determine whether stronger digital asset prices are translating into sustainable business growth across the industry.
Bernstein Cuts Circle Target but Maintains Bullish Rating
Circle also remains under close watch after Bernstein lowered its price target to $140 from $190 while maintaining its Outperform rating, according to information from Investing.
The firm reduced its forecasts for USDC circulation, lowering its year-end 2026 estimate to $83 billion and its 2028 projection to $170 billion, reflecting a more measured pace of stablecoin growth than previously anticipated.
Bernstein also said recent concerns surrounding the launch of the Open USD (OUSD) consortium appear overstated, arguing that the initiative is unlikely to materially alter Circle’s long-term competitive position.
Despite the lower valuation target, the firm continues to view Circle as a leading beneficiary of broader stablecoin adoption, with its revised target still implying significant upside from current trading levels.
The information presented in this article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coinspress.com does not promote or advocate for any particular investment strategy, asset, or cryptocurrency project. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable – always perform your own research and seek guidance from a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coinspress and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
