Expert Predicts Federal Reserve Will Maintain Current Rate Policy Through 2025

Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, has expressed his expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep its interest rates steady throughout 2025, a forecast that contrasts with the broader market's anticipation of multiple rate reductions.
Temple’s outlook is rooted in concerns over persistent inflation risks, emphasizing that the ongoing pressures on prices will likely prevent the Fed from easing its stance.
He pointed out that while many analysts foresee up to three rate cuts this year, the impact of rising U.S. tariffs is a major factor that could stoke inflation, making it difficult for the Fed to pursue quantitative easing.
Temple’s perspective challenges the prevailing view in the market, where there is widespread speculation about a series of rate reductions. He specifically highlighted the likelihood of expanding tariffs, which he believes will contribute to inflationary pressures through 2025.
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While Temple does not foresee an immediate increase in rates due to inflation, he argues that these pressures could effectively block any reduction in rates, even as unemployment continues to rise.
As the Federal Reserve approaches its upcoming meeting, many economists expect a cautious stance, with officials opting to hold the current benchmark rate. The Fed’s decision will be influenced by the delicate balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth, particularly as the impact of President Trump’s tariff policies continues to unfold.