Galaxy Cuts CLARITY Act Odds as Senate Calendar Tightens
Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimated probability of the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 60%, down from a previous forecast of 75%, citing mounting legislative constraints and unresolved policy disputes as lawmakers race toward the summer recess.
Summary:
- Galaxy lowered its CLARITY Act passage odds to 60% from 75%.
- Senate lawmakers face a shrinking legislative window before the August recess.
- Stablecoin yield restrictions, ethics provisions, and illicit-finance rules remain major sticking points.
- The bill remains the most significant attempt to establish a comprehensive U.S. crypto market framework.
The revised outlook from Alex Thorn highlights growing concerns that Congress may struggle to advance comprehensive crypto market structure legislation despite broad industry support and recent progress in Washington.
While the reduction in Galaxy’s probability estimate reflects the objective reality of a tightening Senate calendar, the underlying friction isn’t merely about time – it’s a clash of fundamental regulatory philosophies. The impasse over stablecoin yields, in particular, represents a ‘battle of definitions’ between those viewing crypto as a nascent payment rail and those treating it as a new class of bank deposits.
For investors and market participants, the outcome of this legislative tug-of-war will likely dictate the next two years of institutional capital allocation in the U.S. markets. As the summer recess approaches, the focus should shift from ‘if’ the bill passes to whether the final language survives the high-stakes trade-offs between innovation incentives and federal illicit-finance oversight
Senate Calendar Becomes the Biggest Obstacle
Galaxy’s downgrade comes as lawmakers confront an increasingly compressed legislative calendar.
The CLARITY Act was placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 2 after advancing through the Senate Banking Committee. However, supporters now face a limited number of legislative days before Congress turns its attention to appropriations bills, budget negotiations, and other must-pass measures ahead of the August recess.
Several industry groups, including Stand With Crypto, have intensified lobbying efforts in recent days. A coalition of more than 200 organizations recently urged Senate leadership to prioritize the legislation before lawmakers leave Washington.
Even supporters acknowledge that timing has become one of the bill’s largest risks.
Stablecoin Yield Debate Continues to Divide Stakeholders
One of the most contentious issues remains the treatment of stablecoin yield products.
A compromise framework negotiated earlier this year would prohibit passive yield earned simply by holding stablecoins while allowing certain activity-based rewards linked to payments and network participation.
The issue has exposed divisions between crypto firms and traditional financial institutions.
Several banking groups argue that unrestricted stablecoin yields could encourage deposit migration away from regulated banks, while digital asset companies contend that excessive restrictions could limit innovation and reduce the competitiveness of U.S.-based blockchain networks.
The debate has become increasingly important because many lawmakers view stablecoins as the gateway through which broader digital asset regulation will ultimately develop.
Ethics and Illicit-Finance Concerns Remain Unresolved
Beyond stablecoins, lawmakers continue negotiating several politically sensitive provisions.
Consumer advocacy organizations and some policymakers have pushed for stronger safeguards addressing conflicts of interest, disclosure requirements, and potential ethics concerns involving public officials and digital asset investments.
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At the same time, illicit-finance provisions remain under scrutiny as legislators seek to balance innovation with anti-money laundering and national security objectives.
Critics argue that certain sections of the bill could leave regulatory gaps, while supporters maintain that excessive restrictions would undermine the legislation’s core objective of creating regulatory certainty.
Those disagreements have slowed consensus-building efforts as Senate leaders evaluate potential amendments.
Regulatory Clarity Remains the Central Goal
Despite the political hurdles, the CLARITY Act remains the most ambitious attempt to establish a comprehensive federal framework for digital assets in the United States.
The legislation would define jurisdictional boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, create registration pathways for digital asset intermediaries, and establish clearer compliance standards for market participants.
Industry leaders have repeatedly argued that regulatory uncertainty remains one of the largest barriers to institutional adoption and domestic innovation.
Supporters including Senator Cynthia Lummis and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott have framed the legislation as essential for maintaining U.S. competitiveness in digital finance.
Market Watches Washington’s Next Move
Galaxy’s revised forecast reflects a broader reality increasingly acknowledged across the industry: the challenge facing the CLARITY Act is no longer whether lawmakers recognize the need for crypto regulation, but whether Congress can resolve key policy disputes before legislative time runs out.
While the bill retains meaningful bipartisan support, investors and industry participants are increasingly focused on procedural risks rather than ideological opposition.
For now, the outcome remains uncertain. The coming weeks could determine whether the United States moves closer to its first comprehensive crypto market structure framework or whether the debate extends into another congressional session.
The information presented in this article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coinspress.com does not promote or advocate for any particular investment strategy, asset, or cryptocurrency project. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable – always perform your own research and seek guidance from a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coinspress and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
