Galaxy Lowers Crypto Bill Odds as Senate Time Runs Short

Galaxy Research has reduced the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50% from 60%, citing a narrowing legislative window, unresolved policy disputes and increasing competition for Senate floor time ahead of Congress' August recess.

Summary:

Galaxy cut the CLARITY Act’s 2026 passage odds to 50% from 60%.
Analysts cited limited Senate floor time and unresolved policy disagreements.
Industry groups continue lobbying for a July vote as lawmakers negotiate final revisions.

This recalibration is not an indictment of the bill’s underlying merit, but a realistic assessment of a tightening legislative calendar. As the Senate balances urgent national security agendas with fiscal negotiations, the opportunity for floor time – a finite and highly competitive resource – is rapidly diminishing. The downgrade highlights a growing consensus among policy analysts that without a definitive scheduling commitment in early July, the bill risks being pushed into a September legislative window, where it will inevitably compete with the intensity of the midterm election cycle.

Legislative Calendar Becomes the Biggest Obstacle

According to Galaxy, the primary challenge is no longer whether lawmakers broadly support crypto market structure legislation, but whether Congress has enough time to complete the process before attention shifts to other legislative priorities and the 2026 midterm election cycle.

The Senate has spent recent weeks focused on higher-priority issues, including national security legislation and broader fiscal negotiations, leaving limited floor time for complex financial reform measures.

Although the CLARITY Act remains on the Senate Legislative Calendar, leadership has yet to schedule a floor vote. Without a firm commitment for debate in early July, analysts increasingly believe consideration could slip until September, when election campaigning is expected to dominate the congressional agenda.

Outstanding Policy Issues Continue to Delay Progress

Beyond logistical constraints, the path to passage is complicated by persistent, substantive policy disagreements. Negotiations are currently stalled over critical areas, specifically the alignment of digital asset holdings with government ethics mandates and the tightening of anti-money laundering (AML) frameworks.

Reports indicate that a coalition of moderate Democrats is seeking more robust disclosure standards, while various law enforcement agencies have signaled that certain current draft provisions could inadvertently impede the investigation of crypto-related financial crimes. Bridging these diverse stakeholder interests remains a complex, high-stakes negotiation that must be resolved before leadership can feasibly bring the legislation to a vote.

The outstanding issues have slowed negotiations even as lawmakers continue meeting with industry representatives and White House officials to bridge remaining differences.

Industry Maintains Pressure for a Vote

Despite Galaxy’s more cautious outlook, the digital asset industry continues pressing lawmakers to move forward.

Earlier this month, more than 200 crypto companies and industry organizations, including Coinbase, Ripple and other major market participants, urged Senate leadership to schedule a vote without further delay, arguing that regulatory clarity remains essential for investment and innovation in the United States.

Negotiations remain active, with reports indicating that senators, administration officials and industry stakeholders continue holding regular meetings aimed at resolving the remaining policy disagreements.

My advice to Jamie Dimon? Grab a chair, find a good spot on the beach, and actually read this bill over July 4th. His concerns have been addressed — section 301 handles them directly. We have 16 provisions protecting against illicit finance. He is just simply mistaken. pic.twitter.com/oi31JVvRle

— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) June 24, 2026

Despite the increased uncertainty, the digital asset industry remains unified in its push for regulatory clarity. A substantial coalition of market participants – including sector leaders like Coinbase and Ripple – continues to lobby Senate leadership, arguing that the lack of a standardized framework acts as a barrier to institutional investment and domestic innovation.

Senator Cynthia Lummis has been a vocal proponent of the July timeline, framing it as the critical window for legislative progress. While the current 50% outlook underscores the difficulty of the task, it also reflects an ongoing, active legislative process; the window remains open, contingent upon the ability of lawmakers to resolve their remaining policy impasses before the August recess.

Outlook Hinges on July

While Galaxy now views the bill as effectively a coin toss, analysts emphasize that the legislative outlook could improve quickly if Senate leadership commits to a floor schedule and lawmakers reach agreement on the remaining ethics and illicit finance provisions.

For now, the probability downgrade reflects procedural uncertainty rather than a collapse in political support.

Although bipartisan interest in establishing a comprehensive digital asset regulatory framework remains intact, the shrinking legislative calendar has become the principal risk facing the CLARITY Act. With only a limited number of Senate working weeks remaining before the August recess, the coming month is widely viewed as the legislation’s best opportunity to advance before election-year politics begin reshaping congressional priorities.

The information presented in this article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coinspress.com does not promote or advocate for any particular investment strategy, asset, or cryptocurrency project. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable – always perform your own research and seek guidance from a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Author

Alexander Stefanov

Reporter at CoinsPress

Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coinspress and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.