Here is the Worst Case Scenario for Crypto, According to Benjamin Cowen
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen is raising the alarm of a potentially significant downturn in the crypto markets.
Cowen is identifying similarities between the current crypto market collapse and the tech stock collapse in the dot-com era.
He points to Nasdaq’s performance during the dot-com era. He uses the market rally and declining percentages from that period to indicate where the total market cap for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could be heading.
According to Cowen, the total market cap of all crypto assets may witness one more capitulation phase, similar to what happened to Nasdaq in 2022 when it crashed by about 30% before bottoming out.
He predicts that the worst-case scenario for the crypto market would be a market cap of $400 billion to $500 billion for the entire asset class. This would represent a decline of over $460 billion in cryptocurrencies, as the total market cap at the time of writing is $966 billion.
Cowen notes that the dot-com crash from its peak occurred over two-and-a-half years when the Nasdaq dropped by 83%. He warns that a similar fall from the peak of the crypto markets could also bring the total market cap down to the $400 billion to $500 billion range.
READ MORE: Fear Grips Crypto Investors as Bitcoin Tumbles Below $20K Mark – is it Time to Buy?
However, Cowen emphasizes that he is identifying a worst-case scenario, and it’s still possible that the bottom is already in. He says that there’s always a chance that the market won’t have to play out in the worst-case scenario.
Nonetheless, Cowen’s warning underscores the volatility and unpredictability of the crypto markets, and his analysis may prompt investors to exercise caution and consider their risk tolerance.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coinspress and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
