Historic Altcoin Season Signal Appears Again
Crypto analysts believe that certain conditions are beginning to resemble periods that preceded the start of previous altcoin seasons.
Summary:
- Two analysts are watching copper as a signal for altseason.
- Altcoins have barely reacted so far.
- The key signal may be the copper/gold ratio.
- Part of the market doubts that the pattern will repeat.
Two popular crypto analysts – Ash Crypto and Michael van de Poppe – believe that one of the most important signals for the beginning of the next altcoin season may come not from the crypto market itself, but from commodities. More specifically – from copper.
At first glance, the connection seems strange. Copper is an industrial metal used in electrical grids, factories, electric vehicles, construction, and data centers. Altcoins have no direct connection to this market.
But according to the two analysts, this is exactly where the bigger picture lies.
They believe that when the global economy enters a stronger cycle of infrastructure investment and technological expansion, capital gradually begins moving toward riskier assets. This first becomes visible in commodities and industrial companies, then in stocks, and at a later stage in the crypto market.
That is why they view copper as an indicator of global economic activity.
What Ash Crypto Sees in Copper’s Chart
Ash Crypto is directly tracking the price of copper in U.S. dollars.
According to the published chart, the metal has already reached a new all-time high around $6.62, with a gain of approximately 8.6% during the current month at the time the chart was published.
At the same time, the analyst compares copper’s movement with the so-called “OTHERS” market cap — the total market capitalization of altcoins excluding the ten largest cryptocurrencies.
This is where things become interesting.
According to Ash Crypto, a similar structure already appeared twice – in 2017 and in 2021. In both cases, copper reached a peak first, and several months later a major move in altcoins followed.
By his logic, the current situation looks similar:
- copper has already made a major upward move;
- altcoins have still not reacted;
- and the market may currently be in the “waiting period” between the two processes.
Michael van de Poppe Is Watching a Different Signal
Van de Poppe uses a different approach.
He does not track the price of copper directly, but rather the ratio between copper and gold – the so-called copper/gold ratio.
This ratio shows whether copper is outperforming gold or vice versa.
The logic behind it is relatively simple.
When copper rises faster than gold, it usually indicates a higher appetite for risk and stronger optimism about the economy.
When gold performs better, investors more often seek safety and protection.
According to van de Poppe’s chart, the copper/gold ratio has been in a downtrend for more than four years, which coincides with the weak performance of many altcoins during recent years.
And this is where the key difference between the two analyses appears.
In Ash Crypto’s analysis, the condition has already been fulfilled — copper has reached a new all-time high.
In van de Poppe’s view, however, the key signal is still missing, because according to him it is not enough for copper simply to rise. It must begin outperforming gold.
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This means the two analysts are actually observing different phases of the same process.
Why the Signal Could Be Wrong
Despite the interesting analogy, the analysis also has serious limitations.
The first problem is related to historical data. The theory is based mainly on two periods — 2017 and 2021.
That is not enough to automatically assume that the same pattern will necessarily repeat in 2026.
Markets often display similar patterns without repeating them in an identical way. This time, the delay could be longer, the altcoin move could be weaker, or the relationship might not appear at all.
The second major question is why copper is actually rising.
If the upward move is mainly driven by real industrial demand and global infrastructure expansion, the theory of a later capital inflow into the crypto market appears logical.
But if the rise is caused mainly by supply problems, trade restrictions, or tariff pressure, the situation looks different. In such a scenario, capital remains concentrated around commodities instead of gradually moving into riskier markets like altcoins.
What Will Show Whether the Theory Is Starting to Play Out
Both analysts clearly indicate that they expect their theory to materialize.
Van de Poppe even claims that he is fully positioned in altcoins and continues adding capital. Ash Crypto also views the situation more as a matter of time rather than whether it will happen at all.
The next few months will likely be decisive.
A clearer signal for the real beginning of an altcoin season would be:
- a sustained rise of the OTHERS market cap above $250 billion from the current $188 billion;
- together with a recovery in the copper/gold ratio.
That would show that both signals the analysts are tracking are beginning to align in the same direction.
However, if altcoins remain near current levels while the copper/gold ratio continues falling, this would suggest that copper’s rise alone is not enough to trigger a new major rotation into altcoins.
The information presented in this article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coinspress.com does not promote or advocate for any particular investment strategy, asset, or cryptocurrency project. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable – always perform your own research and seek guidance from a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
