Bitcoin Below $76,000: Why the Next Few Days Could Decide the Direction
Bitcoin remains under pressure after repeatedly failing to hold above a key resistance level, while rising exchange reserves and miner activity are drawing attention to current support levels.
Summary:
- Bitcoin is testing a key short-term resistance.
- Miners sent large amounts of BTC to Binance.
- Binance reserves continue to rise.
- RSI remains weak and leaves room for further downside.
Bitcoin is trading at $75,850 at the time of writing and has once again fallen below the psychological $76,000 level.
The last four days on the daily chart clearly explain why the market is starting to lose momentum. Every attempt to move higher was rejected around the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $77,166, with the price repeatedly pushed back lower.
At the moment, Bitcoin is testing the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $76,014 – the zone that must hold in order to maintain a realistic chance of recovery.
The Market Is Gradually Losing Momentum
The chart from late March until now outlines a relatively clear cycle. Bitcoin began recovering from the area around $65,000, moved sequentially through the major Fibonacci levels during April, and reached nearly $83,000 in early May.
Since then, the movement has gradually shifted downward.
So far, the market remains under pressure, but instead of a sharp collapse, there is steady selling pressure that is slowly pushing the price lower through individual technical levels.
The SMA50 at $77,166 has become the main short-term barrier. The price has repeatedly attempted to hold above it, but every session over the past few days has ended with another rejection.
This suggests that sellers continue actively defending the zone, keeping Bitcoin trapped within a relatively narrow range.
For the market to begin reversing momentum, several conditions need to be met consecutively.
First, the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $76,014 must hold as support. Then Bitcoin needs to close above the SMA50 and successfully maintain the level during a potential retest. Only then could the market begin targeting higher resistance levels.
Above the SMA50 comes the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $78,613, followed by the SMA200 at $80,168.
More importantly, it is not only the price level of the SMA200 that matters, but also the direction of the moving average itself. At the moment, it continues trending clearly downward, meaning the long-term trend has not yet shifted back into bullish territory.
RSI Remains Weak
The daily RSI indicator stands at 42.14 and remains below its average value of 47.09.
This confirms that momentum remains negative and the market still lacks a strong impulse for an upside reversal.
More importantly, RSI has not yet entered oversold territory. Typically, levels around 30 begin attracting more aggressive buyers and create conditions for a technical bounce. At 42, the market still has room for additional downside.
READ MORE: Bitcoin ETFs Lose Over a Billion as XRP Draws Interest
The only somewhat positive technical signal comes from the SMA100 at $72,937, which has gradually started moving higher following the March and April lows.
If Bitcoin fails to hold above or around the 0.382 Fibonacci level and later breaks below the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $73,914, the SMA100 could become the next major support zone.
Miners Sent 21,000 BTC to Binance Exactly at the Peak
On-chain data from CryptoQuant adds another important detail to the market movement.
On May 18, miners transferred approximately 21,000 BTC to Binance – the largest inflow to the exchange since February 5.
Coincidentally, Bitcoin reached a local peak around $83,000 on the very same day, after which the decline began.
Such movements usually occur when miners are preparing to sell or transferring BTC to cover operational expenses.
The situation becomes even more interesting when looking at Binance reserves.
Since May 6, Bitcoin reserves on the exchange have increased from approximately 618,600 BTC to around 634,000 BTC – an increase of about 15,400 BTC during a period in which the price has gradually moved downward.
This suggests that BTC supply on exchanges continues to grow while demand gradually weakens.
Despite the Pressure, the Market Has Not Collapsed
Despite rising exchange reserves and seven consecutive days of ETF outflows, Bitcoin still does not show signs of panic selling.
The decline from roughly $82,800 to $75,700 remains approximately 8.6% over two weeks — a correction rather than a full-scale crash.
This remains one of the most important aspects of the current market structure.
Historically, similar large miner transfers to Binance have often appeared around local bottoms or before recoveries, rather than necessarily before major crashes.
So far, the market is managing to absorb a significant portion of the additional supply despite increasing pressure.
As mentioned earlier, BTC is trading around $75,850 after briefly rising to $76,080 earlier this morning before quickly reversing lower again.
Over the past several days, Bitcoin has remained within a relatively narrow range, signaling hesitation and a lack of clear direction.
The reason appears relatively straightforward – investors are waiting for developments surrounding tensions between the United States and Iran before taking on larger risk exposure.
However, the most important question remains whether the market will be able to absorb the current supply around $76,000 in the same way it absorbed miner selling near $83,000.
That will likely determine whether the current correction remains controlled or whether selling pressure begins gradually accelerating.
The information presented in this article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coinspress.com does not promote or advocate for any particular investment strategy, asset, or cryptocurrency project. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable – always perform your own research and seek guidance from a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
