Bitcoin Is One Step Away From a New Bullish Trend Signal
Bitcoin fell below $81,000 after almost reaching the 200-day simple moving average - the level that currently separates an ordinary recovery from a confirmed new bull cycle.
Summary:
- BTC is trading around $80,900.
- The 200-day MA remains at $83,200.
- RSI is on the verge of entering overbought territory.
- The same signal previously preceded several sell-offs.
- Exchange reserves dropped to 2.67 million BTC.
- Whales bought 270,000 BTC over the last 30 days.
Resistance Built Over Months
Bitcoin has not closed above its 200-day simple moving average since October 2025. The level around $83,200 is no longer just a technical line on the chart. It is gradually becoming the boundary between the recovery that began after the drop below $63,000 in February and a genuine shift in the long-term market structure.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $80,900. The decline came after BTC got extremely close to this zone on Wednesday, reaching above $82,000, but failing to achieve a convincing breakout. That is exactly what makes the situation so sensitive – the market is near a key level but is still showing hesitation.
Since the February bottom, the price has been moving within an ascending channel, with the upper boundary currently aligning with the 200-day moving average (MA). This creates a resistance zone that is attracting the attention of both technical traders and institutional investors.
To continue its recovery toward higher levels above $83,000, Bitcoin must simultaneously break above the upper boundary of the channel and the 200-day MA, then successfully retest them as support.
The RSI Signal That Has Already Preceded Three Sell-Offs
The daily RSI climbed to around 69 points and once again approached the area above 70, which is traditionally considered overbought territory. The chart shows that during several previous similar rallies, Bitcoin’s momentum started weakening shortly after reaching these levels.
A similar setup appeared at the end of 2023, in March 2024, as well as during several stronger impulses in 2025, after which the market moved into deeper corrections or prolonged consolidation phases.
By itself, RSI does not guarantee a trend reversal, but when the indicator once again reaches similar values directly below one of the most important resistance levels of recent months, the market starts paying much closer attention to the signal.
This is where the market’s main contradiction emerges.
On one hand, on-chain data continues to show strong demand and limited supply – conditions that usually support continued upside. On the other hand, the RSI pattern is once again beginning to resemble the signals that preceded previous major sell-offs.
READ MORE: Bitcoin and the Record 67 Days Under Bearish Pressure: What History Shows
For now, the move can still be described as a pause rather than a trend reversal. Corrections after approaching overbought conditions within an upward structure often look different from actual cycle tops. The difference, however, will only become clear once the market either decisively breaks above the resistance zone or gets firmly rejected from it.
What Supply Data Shows
According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin reserves across all tracked exchanges fell to 2.67 million BTC as of May 7 – the lowest level since approximately 2019.
Reserves grew almost continuously between 2013 and 2022, when they peaked at 3.4 million BTC. After that, a prolonged decline began, continuing throughout 2023, 2024, and 2025, and extending into the current year without any significant recovery.
The current level is 21% below the 2022 peak.
This matters because during much of the previous cycle, both price and exchange reserves were rising simultaneously. Today, the situation is reversed – reserves are shrinking while the price gradually recovers.
Fewer BTC on exchanges means less immediately available supply for selling. This also coincides with net whale purchases of 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days – one of the largest monthly accumulation periods since 2013.
Whales accumulated 270,000 $BTC in 30 days, the largest buying spree since 2013.
Exchange reserves are at their lowest since December 2017.
The supply to meet new demand is shrinking 🤔 pic.twitter.com/F6Td5a5XcL
— Bitfinex (@bitfinex) April 15, 2026
The available supply for sale is gradually shrinking from two directions at the same time.
Why the Situation Does Not Fully Resemble 2022
The most commonly used historical comparison remains March 2022. Back then, Bitcoin also climbed toward its 200-day MA around $48,000 before collapsing toward $20,000 just a few months later.
The similarity in structure is real – a recovery, a test of the 200-day average, followed by a major decline.
The difference, however, lies in supply conditions.
In 2022, exchange reserves were still near their historical peak above 3.4 million BTC, meaning there was a significant amount of available coins ready to be sold as price approached a major resistance zone.
READ MORE: Why Strategy Reported a $12.5B Bitcoin Loss
Today, Bitcoin is approaching a similar area while reserves are more than 20% lower and still declining.
This does not guarantee an upside breakout, but it changes the market structure compared to 2022.
What Will Decide the Direction
The bullish scenario requires a daily close above $83,200 within the next two to three weeks.
A sustained breakout above the 200-day MA and the upper boundary of the ascending channel, supported by strong spot volume, would confirm that the recovery is gradually turning into a broader upward trend.
The next major zone above that level is around the psychological threshold at $85,000.
The bearish scenario begins with a break below $78,500, where the 50-day moving average and the first major support below the current price are located.
A daily close below that zone would compromise the structure of the ascending channel and would likely trigger broader profit-taking after the three-month recovery.
The longer BTC remains below $81,000 without convincingly reclaiming the level, the greater the probability that the current RSI signal will end with a decline, as happened in the previous three cases.
At the moment, supply data continues to support the bulls. The history of momentum, however, remains considerably more cautious. The only thing that can definitively settle the debate between the two scenarios is a convincing breakout above $83,200, potentially helped by positive developments in the situation between the United States and Iran.
The information presented in this article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coinspress.com does not promote or advocate for any particular investment strategy, asset, or cryptocurrency project. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable – always perform your own research and seek guidance from a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
