Bitcoin: Market Theory Gives Hope to the Bulls
The recent decrease in the price of Bitcoin has caused many people in the cryptocurrency market to be concerned about the possibility of a major correction.
However, the Hurst Cycle Theory, created by American engineer JM Hurst in the 1970s, suggests that Bitcoin bulls have time on their side and that a correction may not be due for a while longer.
The Hurst Cycle Theory comprises eight fundamental principles: Commonality, Cyclicality, Summation, Harmonicity, Synchronicity, Proportionality, Nominality, and Variation. Essentially it seeks to identify a repetitive time pattern measured from trough to trough.
Based on this theory, past corrections of 50% or more have followed a cyclical pattern. The time cycles indicate that the next major trough is not expected until at least January 2024.
These major troughs date back to the significant correction in 2017, followed by the 2018 bear market bottom, the COVID-induced market collapse in 2020, and another trough in the summer of 2021, with yet another in November 2022. However, it remains unclear if the latest trough is a long-term bottom.
READ MORE: Bitcoin: Price Continues to Crash Dragging the Whole Crypto Market Along
The next major cyclical trough with significant Summation is not expected until mid-2026. Therefore, not only do the shorter time cycles suggest that there will be no significant bearish movements in the short term, but the larger time cycles also indicate the same.
The Principle of Harmonicity proposes that larger time cycles can be broken down into halves and thirds. When measured as the 1/3 harmonic, the smaller time cycle takes us back to several significant bear market bottoms.
While the Hurst Cycle Theory does require some subjectivity, it suggests that Bitcoin may not be due for a major correction for several more months. However, there’s no telling if the above is perfectly accurate or if the current cyclical structure begins to change or feature more variation. If the drawings are accurate, it won’t be time for a bigger correction for several more months.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coinspress and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
