Bitcoin Price Weakens Below $63,000 as Profitability Hits Rare Lows
Historical profitability compression has appeared around major lows, but it does not confirm that a bottom is already in.
Summary:
- Bitcoin’s supply in profit has fallen to 51.4%, its lowest level in more than three years.
- BTC is trading near $62,600 and below all four major moving averages on the 4-hour chart.
- Futures open interest is rebuilding even as price falls, keeping liquidation risk elevated.
Bitcoin’s latest decline is creating a market structure normally associated with much later stages of a correction. BTC traded near $62,600 on August 14, while CryptoQuant data showed only 51.4% of circulating supply remained in profit, leaving nearly half of
Bitcoin’s supply below the price at which those coins last moved. At the same time, futures exposure has started rebuilding and more than 89% of the latest Bitcoin liquidations came from long positions, suggesting that the market is becoming cheaper on-chain without yet completing its derivatives reset. Bitcoin was trading around $62,594 at the latest market reading.
Half of Bitcoin supply is now sitting near breakeven or underwater
Supply in Profit compares Bitcoin’s current market price with the price at which each unspent transaction output last moved. When current price is higher, that supply is classified as being in profit.
At 51.4%, the metric implies roughly 48.6% of supply is currently held at an unrealized loss.
The latest reading is notable because comparable sub-55% zones appeared around the 2018 bear-market trough, the March 2020 liquidation and the 2022-2023 bottoming period. The current level is also the lowest seen in more than three years, according to the CryptoQuant chart.
That makes the indicator useful, but it should not be interpreted as a mechanical buy signal.
Supply profitability can remain depressed for months during prolonged bear markets. In late 2022, for example, Bitcoin repeatedly moved around the 45% to 55% profitability zone before a durable recovery developed.
The more useful interpretation is that the market has already absorbed a substantial amount of financial pain. Newer buyers are increasingly underwater, reducing the large unrealized-profit cushion that characterized the previous market peak.
Recent Glassnode analysis supports that broader reset. Bitcoin’s median realized price around $63,000 had absorbed repeated tests for more than a month, while the short-term holder cost basis near $68,700 remained a significant overhead barrier. Buyer demand, however, has stayed unusually weak despite improving macro conditions.
Why falling profitability can create both capitulation and opportunity
As Bitcoin falls through investors’ cost bases, the market undergoes a redistribution process.
Recent buyers face losses and some eventually sell, converting unrealized losses into realized ones. Buyers entering at lower prices then acquire those coins with a cheaper cost basis. If that process continues long enough, the market can gradually reduce the amount of supply held by sellers waiting simply to exit at breakeven.
That is why extreme profitability compression has appeared around previous cycle bottoms.
It does not, however, mean that long-term investors are necessarily accumulating aggressively today.
READ MORE: Bitcoin Slips After CPI as Softer Inflation Fails to Lift Crypto
Glassnode recently found that spot Bitcoin trading volume had fallen to its lowest level since 2019. Bitcoin Price Weakens Below $63K as Profitability Hits Rare LowsETF inflows improved modestly toward the end of July but remained far smaller than previous accumulation waves, while exchange inflows continued rising.
In other words, sellers may be exhausting themselves, but there is still limited evidence of the broad spot demand normally needed to turn capitulation into a sustained recovery.
Futures leverage is rebuilding as Bitcoin falls
The derivatives market adds another layer of risk.
CoinGlass data in the supplied market snapshot shows Bitcoin futures open interest rising back toward $48.5 billion on August 14 after dropping toward $46.5 billion earlier in the week. That increase occurred while Bitcoin fell toward the low-$62,000 range.
Rising open interest during falling prices means new derivatives exposure is entering the market. It does not reveal whether every new position is long or short, but it increases the amount of leverage available to amplify the next large move.
A separate liquidation snapshot underscores the imbalance:
- Total BTC liquidations: $34.5 million
- Long liquidations: $30.8 million
- Short liquidations: $3.7 million
- Long share of liquidations: roughly 89%
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has separately pointed to the ratio between BTC/USDT futures open interest and USDT exchange reserves as evidence that leverage remains structurally elevated. The ratio previously climbed above 0.5 before retreating toward 0.3, but it remains above pre-ETF levels.
This chart tracks market leverage on-chain: BTC/USDT futures open interest divided by USDT reserves.
Leverage peaked above 0.5, now sits near 0.3. Still above pre-ETF levels and likely never going back. If ETF inflows continue, expect high leverage in futures again. pic.twitter.com/lZyD1YZKn1
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) August 13, 2026
That combination matters. Falling profitability is clearing excess gains from the spot market, while derivatives traders continue rebuilding leveraged exposure.
Another downside break could therefore generate additional forced selling before the on-chain reset translates into a durable floor.
Bitcoin loses its short-term technical structure
The 4-hour TradingView chart reinforces the weaker near-term setup.
Bitcoin at roughly $62,600 is now trading below its major moving averages:
- 20-period SMA: $63,456
- 50-period SMA: $64,195
- 100-period SMA: $63,949
- 200-period SMA: $64,211
- RSI: 30.83
The cluster between roughly $63,450 and $64,200 has consequently shifted from support into the first major recovery zone. BTC would need to reclaim that area to weaken the immediate bearish structure.
RSI near 31 puts momentum close to oversold territory, meaning the selloff is increasingly stretched, but it does not indicate that buyers have regained control.
Below current prices, the broader 200-week moving average is becoming increasingly important. It produced a meaningful relief bounce in July, but buying around that long-term trend line has weakened during August, according to Rekt Capital.
That matters because repeated tests of the same support can reduce the amount of resting demand available each time price returns.
Why this is not yet a confirmed Bitcoin bottom
Several indicators are now moving into territory associated with market stress: supply profitability is approaching 50%, momentum is nearly oversold and leveraged longs have already suffered another round of liquidations.
What is missing is stronger confirmation from demand.
Glassnode found that resting bids have declined by roughly one-third since July, while futures open interest has remained unusually large relative to actual futures volume. The firm identified the June low near $58,500 as an area that could become relevant if the current structure fails.
Experienced Bitcoin traders may also be beginning to position differently. Ki Young Ju recently observed stronger taker buying from some veteran market participants, similar in direction to activity seen around the 2023 cycle bottom. He explicitly cautioned, however, that the signal does not prove Bitcoin has already established its low.
The next useful confirmation would be a combination of falling or stable open interest, stronger spot demand and a recovery above the $63,450-$64,200 moving-average cluster. Without that combination, a 51.4% Supply in Profit reading is better interpreted as evidence that Bitcoin has entered deep reset territory rather than proof that the reset is finished.
The information presented in this article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coinspress.com does not promote or advocate for any particular investment strategy, asset, or cryptocurrency project. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable – always perform your own research and seek guidance from a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
