Bitcoin’s Bullish Path Ahead: Halving and ETF Factors in Focus

A widely recognized expert in cryptocurrency has put forth the notion that Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially undergo another phase of significant price growth, even if regulatory authorities reject all applications for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

This perspective comes from the analysis provided by Josh Rager, a prominent figure in the crypto sphere. Rager’s insights indicate that an imminent BTC supply shortage could emerge following the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which is currently scheduled for April 2024.

According to Rager, the halving mechanism, which effectively halves the rewards earned by miners of BTC, might create a supply deficit. This potential scarcity could drive Bitcoin to enter a bullish phase in the upcoming year, even if there isn’t a spot-based ETF triggering such a trend.

Rager acknowledges that the impact of the Bitcoin halving on its price tends to manifest with a certain delay, often taking a few months before becoming evident in historical price trends. Nevertheless, he holds the view that the halving’s inherent supply reduction is poised to exert a notable influence due to the consequent scarcity resulting from halved block rewards.

Regarding the role of the Bitcoin ETF, Rager emphasizes its significance in shaping the overall price trajectory of Bitcoin. He speculates that despite the possibility of the ETF proposal being declined (although he considers such an outcome unlikely this time), the ongoing supply shortage of Bitcoin could sustain an upward price trend throughout 2024, even following a hypothetical dip resulting from an ETF rejection.

Highlighting historical patterns, Rager underscores the observation that past instances of post-halving periods have typically correlated with upward trends in the value of Bitcoin. However, he acknowledges that the dataset available for such occurrences is limited.

From a forward-looking perspective, Rager anticipates that by around June 2024, Bitcoin could enter a robust bull market phase.

Based on his projected scenario for BTC’s price in the upcoming year:

The anticipated Bitcoin ETF, initially expected in September, experiences a delay until March. This delay triggers a period of price retraction, maintaining Bitcoin’s value within a range of $20,000 to $30,000 over the following six months.
If the ETF receives approval by March, this could lead to a surge in Bitcoin’s price in anticipation of the halving event around April, possibly driving it up to around $40,000.
Following the halving, a temporary stall in price and a minor decline might occur in the subsequent weeks.
Positive price action for Bitcoin could potentially resume around June or July 2024, setting the stage for a substantial upward trajectory extending into the early to mid months of 2025.

At the time of writing, the trading value of Bitcoin stands at approximately $29,207.

Author

Alexander Stefanov

Reporter at CoinsPress

Alex is an experienced finance journalist and a cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiast. With over five years of experience covering the industry, he deeply understands the complex and constantly evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His passionate approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and insightful content. Follow up on his content to be up to date with the most important trends and topics - stay ahead of the curve with CoinsPress.