Bitcoin’s Price: Upward Trend Ahead, According to ARK Invest
In a recent analysis, David Puell, an on-chain researcher at Ark Invest, offers a nuanced perspective on the current and future state of Bitcoin.
The study highlights historically low volatility, miner dynamics, and regulatory challenges as factors contributing to an anticipated significant price movement.
Ark Invest’s Bitcoin Price Analysis in Light of Key Factors Bitcoin’s calm 90-day volatility, reminiscent of 2017 levels, has drawn ARK’s attention. This prolonged period of stability may foreshadow potential turbulence, leading to speculation about a substantial price movement. However, the direction of this movement remains uncertain, creating unease among investors.
On the other hand, miner capitulation presents a contrasting yet positive signal. A decline in the hash rate could indicate oversold conditions, suggesting a potential bullish reversal. Additionally, a surge in “liveliness,” indicating reduced selling pressure as more holders retain their coins, adds to the positive sentiment. Liveliness fell below 60% in July, indicating the strongest long-term holding behavior since the fourth quarter of 2020.
The short-term-holder profit/loss ratio, ending July at approximately 1, aligns with historical trend reversals, contributing to the overall bullish sentiment. Puell notes that this breakeven level has historically correlated with local bottoms during primary bull markets and local tops during bear market environments.
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Macro factors also play a significant role in Bitcoin’s narrative. The Federal Reserve’s substantial interest rate hike could have repercussions on Bitcoin’s performance and the broader economy. If CPI inflation slows down, Bitcoin’s appeal as a non-inflationary asset might surge.
The study sheds light on how the ongoing Binance SEC case could potentially disrupt the cryptocurrency market. BNB‘s significance as an indicator of the cryptocurrency industry’s stability is underscored by Binance’s facilitation of significant liquidity in cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. If the SEC and DOJ charges gain traction, the collapse of BNB could occur due to a “bank run.”
David Puell’s comprehensive analysis weaves together bullish signals with lurking uncertainties. While indicators point towards a potential upward trajectory, regulatory concerns, and macroeconomic forces highlight the complexity of Bitcoin’s journey.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Alex is an experienced finance journalist and a cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiast. With over five years of experience covering the industry, he deeply understands the complex and constantly evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His passionate approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and insightful content. Follow up on his content to be up to date with the most important trends and topics - stay ahead of the curve with CoinsPress.
