Fed Hopes Lift Bitcoin, but Strategists Warn the Rally May Crack
Bitcoin’s return above $90,000 has energized traders searching for a December turnaround — but not everyone is convinced the move is built on solid ground.
While crypto markets cheered a softer U.S. inflation reading and rising conviction that the Federal Reserve will trim rates, analysts are pointing out something less comforting: Bitcoin is no longer pulling risk assets along the way it once did. Its advantage over the S&P 500 — a relationship traders long treated as a strength — has flattened, and in some models is curling lower.
McGlone’s Warning Signals Take Center Stage
That backdrop fuels Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone’s latest caution. Rather than focusing on the recent bounce, he highlights a compression zone — roughly between $84,000 and $94,000 — where Bitcoin’s next identity crisis may be resolved.
Break higher and the bull narrative claws back authority. Slip beneath it, and an uncomfortable conversation emerges about where equilibrium lies after two hyper-volatile years.
McGlone puts that mean-reversion anchor near $50,100, a number derived from multi-year average price relationships that imply Bitcoin could revisit lower territory if momentum keeps draining.
$94,000-$84,000: Do or Die for Bitcoin –
About $50,100 is the average of Bitcoin's yearly highs from 2021-23 and its 2024 low. What stops the reversion? Bitcoin turning positive on the year, roughly above $94,000, would signal broad-market recovery. One crypto in 2009 rising to… pic.twitter.com/PXoqG56HS4— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) December 7, 2025
Why the Macro Tailwind Might Not Be Enough
Betting on a rate cut has been the core fuel driving this latest move upward. Cheaper borrowing typically increases appetite for speculative exposure, especially in digital assets. But monetary support cannot compensate for weakening technical leadership or investor fatigue.
For now, the market faces a tug-of-war: a fundamental boost from policy expectations versus structural concerns about waning trend strength.
A December Where Both Bullish Hopes and Bearish Fears Are Valid
Bitcoin’s recovery is real — but so is the fragility behind it. If the asset clears upper resistance decisively, traders will start talking about $100,000 again. But if the floor fails inside McGlone’s identified range, 2026 might open with a sharp reset instead of continuation.
For an asset that built its reputation on leading markets higher, that would be a noticeable role reversal.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coinspress and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
