Fed Hopes Lift Bitcoin, but Strategists Warn the Rally May Crack
Bitcoin’s return above $90,000 has energized traders searching for a December turnaround — but not everyone is convinced the move is built on solid ground.
While crypto markets cheered a softer U.S. inflation reading and rising conviction that the Federal Reserve will trim rates, analysts are pointing out something less comforting: Bitcoin is no longer pulling risk assets along the way it once did. Its advantage over the S&P 500 — a relationship traders long treated as a strength — has flattened, and in some models is curling lower.
McGlone’s Warning Signals Take Center Stage
That backdrop fuels Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone’s latest caution. Rather than focusing on the recent bounce, he highlights a compression zone — roughly between $84,000 and $94,000 — where Bitcoin’s next identity crisis may be resolved.
Break higher and the bull narrative claws back authority. Slip beneath it, and an uncomfortable conversation emerges about where equilibrium lies after two hyper-volatile years.
McGlone puts that mean-reversion anchor near $50,100, a number derived from multi-year average price relationships that imply Bitcoin could revisit lower territory if momentum keeps draining.
$94,000-$84,000: Do or Die for Bitcoin –
About $50,100 is the average of Bitcoin's yearly highs from 2021-23 and its 2024 low. What stops the reversion? Bitcoin turning positive on the year, roughly above $94,000, would signal broad-market recovery. One crypto in 2009 rising to… pic.twitter.com/PXoqG56HS4— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) December 7, 2025
Why the Macro Tailwind Might Not Be Enough
Betting on a rate cut has been the core fuel driving this latest move upward. Cheaper borrowing typically increases appetite for speculative exposure, especially in digital assets. But monetary support cannot compensate for weakening technical leadership or investor fatigue.
For now, the market faces a tug-of-war: a fundamental boost from policy expectations versus structural concerns about waning trend strength.
A December Where Both Bullish Hopes and Bearish Fears Are Valid
Bitcoin’s recovery is real — but so is the fragility behind it. If the asset clears upper resistance decisively, traders will start talking about $100,000 again. But if the floor fails inside McGlone’s identified range, 2026 might open with a sharp reset instead of continuation.
For an asset that built its reputation on leading markets higher, that would be a noticeable role reversal.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Alex is an experienced finance journalist and a cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiast. With over five years of experience covering the industry, he deeply understands the complex and constantly evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His passionate approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and insightful content. Follow up on his content to be up to date with the most important trends and topics - stay ahead of the curve with CoinsPress.
