Here is What to Expect From Bitcoin in September
The "September Effect" is a well-known market trend where stock prices historically decline in September, and Bitcoin (BTC) has mirrored this pattern, making it a challenging month for cryptocurrency investors.
Data from CoinGlass, as of August 31, sheds light on this trend, revealing that September is typically the weakest month for Bitcoin, with average returns of -4.78% and median returns of -5.58%. Only September and June have shown negative average returns, while June is relatively neutral at -0.35%.
In terms of medians, August and December also display negative figures, with -7.90% and -3.59% returns, respectively. Despite Bitcoin’s generally positive performance throughout most months, September’s historical data raises concerns about potential losses.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has only posted three positive returns in September. Notably, there were gains in 2015 (2.35%), 2016 (6.04%), and a modest increase of 3.91% last year. Conversely, Bitcoin experienced its worst September performances in 2014 and 2019, with losses exceeding 19% and 13%, respectively.
READ MORE: Economist Predicts Bitcoin Could Hit $100,000 in 3 Months
The “September Effect” seems to hold true for Bitcoin, potentially leading to declines. However, the cryptocurrency market is unpredictable, and there have been years where Bitcoin performed well despite the historical trend.
On-chain analyst Ali Martinez has highlighted a crucial resistance level at $66,000, suggesting that failing to break above this could indicate a prolonged bear market.
#Bitcoin above the warm supply realized price is a positive sign, while dropping below it may indicate the start of a longer bear market. Right now, this level is $66,000. If $BTC stays under it, bulls should proceed with caution! pic.twitter.com/QWzTquQ5Mh
— Ali (@ali_charts) August 31, 2024
Given the historical patterns and current analysis, investors should remain cautious and strategically manage their positions as September progresses, closely monitoring market movements for any signs of change.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coinspress and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
