Smart Money Turns Cautious as Analysts Flag Warning Signals for Bitcoin
A new market update from 10x Research suggests that Bitcoin’s recent dip to the $100,000 range may not mark the beginning of a rebound, despite the psychological importance of the level.
The report, titled “Bear Market Watch: What Smart Money Is Seeing in Bitcoin’s Data,” examines a mix of on-chain and macro indicators that have historically helped institutional investors time market reversals.
A Pattern of Accurate Calls — With a Different Tone This Time
The research firm, led by analysts who correctly predicted the major year-end rallies in 2022, 2023, and 2024, said it initially expected Bitcoin to move toward $100,000 this quarter — a forecast that has now materialized. However, unlike in past Octobers, the tone this time is far more cautious.
Update: Bear Market Watch: What Smart Money Is Seeing in Bitcoin’s Data
On October 22, 2025, in our report “Bear Market Watch: What Smart Money Is Seeing in Bitcoin’s Data,” we walked through the very same on-chain and macro indicators seasoned crypto investors rely on, signals… pic.twitter.com/72ostSC7Ny
— 10x Research (@10x_Research) November 5, 2025
According to 10x Research, the usual drivers of Q4 optimism are missing. The firm noted that by late September, its suite of proprietary on-chain models had already shifted from bullish to neutral, flashing a “warning yellow” signal just as investor sentiment elsewhere reached euphoric levels.
Is This the Dip to Buy?
Bitcoin’s latest slide has reignited debate among traders about whether the pullback represents a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper correction. While many see $100,000 as a key psychological support level, 10x Research warns that “price alone does not make a bottom.”
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The report emphasizes that the firm is currently reviewing a range of metrics — including flow data, macro trends, and network fundamentals — to assess whether the market is stabilizing or if more downside lies ahead. It added that in volatile cycles like this, the most successful investors tend to “sell early and buy back later” instead of waiting out prolonged declines.
Data Still Being Assessed
10x’s models are designed to identify shifts in institutional positioning and liquidity flows, two factors that have proven reliable in previous cycles. While no definitive reversal signal has been confirmed yet, the firm hinted that patience may be prudent until stronger recovery signals appear.
A Test of Discipline for Investors
Bitcoin’s drop back toward six figures follows a sharp deleveraging wave and a slowdown in ETF inflows — both signs of cooling institutional appetite after the summer’s exuberance. With volatility high and macro uncertainty persisting, 10x Research’s tone suggests that professional traders are adopting a wait-and-see stance rather than rushing in to “buy the dip.”
As the firm put it, the coming weeks will reveal whether the market is merely pausing or entering a longer corrective phase. For now, the smart money appears to be watching — not chasing.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at CoinsPress
Alex is an experienced finance journalist and a cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiast. With over five years of experience covering the industry, he deeply understands the complex and constantly evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His passionate approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and insightful content. Follow up on his content to be up to date with the most important trends and topics - stay ahead of the curve with CoinsPress.
